Greenock Morton vs Partick Thistle: match statistics

Analysis of statistics from the last 5 matches clearly favors the visitors: Partick Thistle scored 15 goals in those games (average 3.0 per match), while Greenock Morton have only 1 goal in that period (0.2 per match). Defensively the advantage is also with the visitors — Partick Thistle conceded 5 goals in the last 5 matches (1.0 per match) compared to 8 conceded by the hosts (1.6 per match). The difference in results translates into points: the visitors average 1.8 points per match over the last five, the hosts only 0.2, and forms are respectively 'wwddd' for the visitors and 'dllll' for the hosts. The key advantages for Partick Thistle are offensive efficiency 15 vs 1 and better defensive stability 5 vs 8, which given such a disparity makes them the favorites. I expect a win for the visitors; a draw is possible but less likely given this advantage.

Greenock Morton have scored an average of 0.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches (1 goal total) and had BTTS in 20% of games, indicating they rarely find the net. Partick Thistle, meanwhile, score 3.0 goals per game (15 in 5), have an xG of 2.78 over the last 5 matches and BTTS in 60% of those games, while the home side concedes on average 1.6 goals per game, so the visitors have a high likelihood of scoring. In a simple estimate: 20% chance Morton score multiplied by ~95% (1-e^-3.0) chance Thistle score gives around a 19% probability for BTTS. Although Morton have xG 0.76 in the last 5 suggesting some scoring potential, their 0.2 goals record and form 'dllll' indicate poor finishing, so the 'No Goal' (no BTTS) scenario is the stronger signal.

In the last 5 matches Partick Thistle scored 15 goals (3.0 per match) with xG 2.78, while Greenock Morton managed only 1 goal (0.2 per match) with xG 0.76. The home side concedes on average 1.64 goals in these games, and the visitors allow only 0.65 xG per match, indicating an attacking advantage and creative quality from Partick Thistle. The combined expected goals from xG is about 3.54 (0.76+2.78), which under a Poisson distribution yields ~87% probability of Over 1.5 goals, ~69% for Over 2.5 and ~47% for Over 3.5. The strongest data-driven recommendation is Over 1.5 (over) with an 87% probability, driven by the 3.0 vs 0.2 average goals and xG 2.78 vs 0.76. Over 3.5 is under 50% probability, so that line appears too risky.

Partick Thistle have averaged 3.0 goals per match in their last five games versus 0.2 for Greenock Morton, indicating a significant attacking advantage for the visitors. The visitors led at the break in 3 of 5 matches (60%), the home side never led at the break (0%), and first‑half goals averaged 1.6 for the visitors versus 0.0 for the hosts. Despite Partick’s first‑half dominance, full‑time results more often ended in draws (3 draws, 60%) than in away wins (2 wins, 40%), suggesting a risk of losing the lead after the break. Therefore I assign a 45% probability to the scenario of the visitors leading at half‑time and the match ending level (2/X), 35% to the visitors leading at half‑time and winning (2/2), 12% to a half‑time draw and full‑time draw (X/X), and 8% to a half‑time draw and an away win (X/2); other HT/FT combinations are effectively negligible given the hosts’ 0% wins in the last five matches.