Greuther Fürth vs Darmstadt 98: match statistics

Darmstadt 98 are the favorites — they sit 5th with 13 wins this season versus Greuther Fürth’s 8 wins (17th), reflecting superior overall performance. The visitors have scored 50 goals this season (1.50 away average), while the hosts have 40 goals (1.36 at home); Darmstadt generate 1.34 xG on the road vs 1.13 xG for Fürth at home and average 12.21 shots with 4.29 on target per match compared to 10.14 and 3.29 for Fürth, with shot conversion around 12% vs 13%. Defensively Fürth are more vulnerable — they concede 2.00 goals at home on average with an xG against of 1.66, while Darmstadt concede 1.57 goals away with an xG against of 1.86, which suggests the visitors are more efficient at limiting actual goals conceded. In the last 5 matches Fürth average 1.4 pts (results: W W L L D), Darmstadt 1.0 pts (D D W L L), but Darmstadt have a lower share of scoreless away games (14% vs 36% for Fürth) and the advantage in shots and goals favors the visitors. Considering the seasonal advantage in goals (50 vs 40), higher volume and quality of chances (12.21 vs 10.14 shots) and a materially lower percentage of scoreless matches, I forecast a Darmstadt win.

The dominant signal for BTTS is Darmstadt — they have 71% of matches with both teams scoring this season and as high as 80% in the last 5 fixtures, which strongly suggests this team both scores and concedes. Greuther Fürth has a seasonal BTTS of 47% and only 40% in the last 5, and at home they concede on average 0.8 goals and keep a clean sheet in 47% of matches, which reduces but does not eliminate the risk of the visitors scoring. xG and chance-creation analysis shows Fürth with xG_for 1.65 on 5.53 shots on target, and Darmstadt xG_for 1.34 on 4.29 shots; defenses allow xG 1.44 (Fürth) and 1.86 (Darmstadt) respectively, giving a combined potential of about 2.99 xG and favoring goals from both sides. In the last 5 matches Darmstadt averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Fürth averaged 1.0 and 1.2, so current form also supports a both-teams-to-score scenario. Considering Darmstadt’s indicator advantage and the league BTTS average of 59%, I recommend BTTS = Yes with a probability of around 70%.

xG and goals-per-game analysis projects 1.76 xG for Greuther Fürth and 1.39 xG for Darmstadt, totaling 3.15 expected goals versus the league average of 2.91 goals per match. Both teams have a high share of matches over 1.5 goals — Fürth 80% and Darmstadt 79% — so I assess the probability of Over 1.5 at about 89%. For the 2.5 line, Fürth have 47% of season matches over 2.5 goals and Darmstadt 64%; the rates of BTTS are 47% (Fürth) and 71% (Darmstadt), which lifts the chance of Over 2.5 to roughly 71%. The 3.5 line is less certain: season Over 3.5 are 33% for Fürth and 50% for Darmstadt, and the projected total of 3.15 suggests about a 39% probability of more than 3.5 goals. Additionally, Fürth average 14.73 shots (5.53 on target) and Darmstadt 12.21 (4.29 on target) with conversion rates of 13% and 12%, which further supports Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Seasonally, Greuther Fürth win 67% of matches at home, while their home games are level at half-time in 60% of cases, indicating that decisions often occur after the break. In the second half Fürth score an average of 1.13 goals and concede only 0.27, whereas Darmstadt after the break score 1.00 and concede 0.79, which gives the hosts the advantage after the 45th minute. The hosts’ xG is 1.65 versus the visitors’ 1.34, and the average number of shots on target 5.53 versus 4.29 confirms Fürth’s superior attacking quality. In light of these figures I assign the highest probability to the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of a draw at the break and a home win (X/1).