Grimsby Town vs Exeter City: match statistics

Grimsby Town sit 12th, while Exeter City are ninth, but current form more clearly favors the hosts. In their last five matches, Grimsby have collected 5 points through 1 win and 2 draws, whereas Exeter have not won a single game, recording 3 draws and 2 defeats. The hosts have scored 9 goals in this period, averaging 1.8 per match, compared with Exeter’s 7 goals, while the visitors have also conceded as many as 10. Grimsby have not been defensively consistent either, allowing opponents 8 goals in five matches; however, their goal difference of -1 is better than Exeter’s -3. Home advantage and the more effective attack in recent weeks give Grimsby a slight edge, although Exeter’s high proportion of draws increases the likelihood of the points being shared.

Both teams recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, providing a clear signal for goals at both ends. During this period, Grimsby averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Exeter scored 1.4 goals but allowed their opponents as many as 2.0 goals per match. The hosts created chances worth 1.54 xG, while Exeter’s defense allowed opponents 1.98 xG, significantly increasing Grimsby’s chances of finding the net. Exeter have lower attacking potential, with an xG of 1.10; however, Grimsby conceded an average of 1.24 goals, so the visitors still have a realistic path to scoring. The last-five-match goal records—9:8 for Grimsby and 7:10 for Exeter—support a scenario in which neither defense keeps a clean sheet, making BTTS - Yes the preferred outcome rather than BTTS - No. BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically mean a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

Grimsby’s latest five matches averaged 3.4 goals, with the team scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.6 per game. Exeter’s matches produced the same 3.4-goal average, with 1.4 goals scored and as many as 2.0 conceded per match. The hosts created an average of 1.54 xG, while Exeter allowed opponents 1.98 xG, strongly supporting at least two goals for Grimsby. Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of Grimsby’s last five matches and 60% of Exeter’s games, while both teams scored in 80% of cases for each side. However, the strongest and safer signal is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.95 goals provides a substantial margin above this line.

The strongest signal points to the 1/1 scenario, as Grimsby averaged 1.8 goals scored over their last five matches, while Exeter conceded as many as 2.0 goals per game. The hosts were leading at the break in 40% of those fixtures—twice as often as Exeter, who led after 45 minutes in only 20% of their matches. Before half-time, Grimsby averaged 1.0 goals compared with 0.4 for the visitors, and their first-half goal difference stood at +2, while Exeter’s was -1. Exeter have not won any of their last five matches, although as many as 60% ended in draws, increasing the likelihood of an equaliser after the break. Nevertheless, the hosts’ advantage in the early stages and their opponents’ defensive weakness make Grimsby holding on to their lead the most likely individual outcome.