Grobiņa vs Tukums: match statistics

The favorite is Tukums: this season the visitors have scored 24 goals versus just 6 for Grobiņa, and in the last 5 matches Tukums has netted 14 goals compared to only 2 for the hosts. The visitors’ attacking superiority is also evident in shots — averaging 11.4 attempts and 4.2 on target per match with a 12% conversion rate, while Grobiņa records 6.83 shots, 1.33 on target and a 2% conversion. Grobiņa failed to score in 83% of their home matches and average only 0.17 goals at home, whereas Tukums have 0% of away matches without a goal and average 1.4 away goals. Defensively the hosts conceded 10 goals in the last 5 matches and average 1.33 goals conceded at home, while Tukums conceded 5 goals in their last five and 1.8 on average away; average xG is 0.83 for Grobiņa versus 1.37 for Tukums, which confirms the visitors’ edge. Considering Grobiņa’s 0.6 points per match in the last 5 fixtures versus Tukums’ 1.6 points, I give the highest probability to an away win.

Both teams have very high seasonal BTTS rates: Grobiņa 86% and Tukums 100%, which strongly supports the "both teams to score" option. In the last 5 matches, however, Grobiņa has only 40% BTTS and scored 2 goals (0.4 per match) while conceding 10 (2.0 per match), whereas Tukums has 80% BTTS and scored 14 goals in that period (2.8 per match). xG confirms both sides' goal potential — Grobiņa xG 1.44 vs Tukums 1.37, with xG against 1.54 and 1.61 respectively, indicating chance creation at both ends. Additionally, Grobiņa averages 5.29 shots on target per match versus Tukums 4.2, and despite Grobiņa's higher seasonal conversion of 22% (vs 12% Tukums), Tukums has no clean sheets this season (0%) and Grobiņa only 14%, which increases the likelihood of BTTS. Based on this I assess BTTS probability at roughly 80% vs 20% and select BTTS - Yes as the best pick.

The xG- and goal-statistics-based model projects a total of 2.99 expected goals: Grobiņa 1.53 (calculated as (1.44 + 1.61)/2) and Tukums 1.46 (calculated as (1.37 + 1.54)/2), which already implies at least 2 goals in the match. Additionally, Grobiņa averages 2.43 goals per season with 5.29 shots on target and a 22% conversion rate, while Tukums averages 1.40 goals with 4.2 shots on target and a 12% conversion rate, favoring the hosts to add goals. Seasonal Over/Under metrics confirm this: Over 1.5 occurred in 100% of matches for both teams, Over 2.5 occurred in 71% of Grobiņa’s matches and 60% of Tukums’ (average ≈65%), whereas Over 3.5 is 43% vs 20% (average ≈32%). A counterpoint is Grobiņa’s form in the last 5 matches — averaging 0.4 goals (2 goals in 5 matches) and 2.0 conceded per game — versus Tukums’ good form (2.8 goals in the last 5 and 1.0 conceded), which increases volatility, especially for higher lines. As a result, the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5 (recommended), with a moderate edge for Over 2.5 (≈65% probability), while Over 3.5 is assessed at ~33% and is treated as a risky addition.

Grobiņa has a clear offensive advantage: on average 2.43 goals per match versus Tukums’s 1.40, and an average home points per match of 1.29 compared to 0.6 for away teams; Tukums has yet to record a win this season (0% wins, 60% draws). In first halves the hosts led in 43% of home matches (3 of 7), scoring on average 1.0 goals and conceding 0.57, while the visitors led at the break in only 20% (1 of 5) and concede 1.2 goals on average. Additionally Grobiņa are strong after the interval — averaging 1.43 goals in the second half and registering 7 goals between the 76th and 90th minutes — which increases the likelihood of maintaining or extending a lead. On that basis the most likely scenario is the hosts leading at half-time and Grobiņa winning at full-time (1/1).