Groningen vs PEC Zwolle: match statistics

Groningen have a clear edge in the quality of chances created at home, averaging 1.96 xG, while PEC Zwolle concede an average of 2.40 xG away from home. The hosts score 2.00 goals per match on their own turf and attempt as many as 20 shots, whereas the visitors average just 37% possession. Zwolle can pose a threat in attack, scoring 1.67 away goals and recording 5.33 shots on target per game, so the likelihood of the visitors finding the net remains significant. Groningen’s defense is a concern, however, as they concede 2.00 goals per home match and have yet to keep a clean sheet. Despite both teams’ poor recent form, with Groningen collecting 5 points from five matches compared to Zwolle’s 4 points, the hosts’ advantage in possession, shots and xG points towards a narrow home victory.

The strongest argument for BTTS - Yes is Groningen’s current form: in their last 5 matches, both teams scored in 100% of games, while the hosts averaged 2.0 goals scored and 2.4 conceded. PEC Zwolle recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five appearances, averaging 1.2 goals scored and as many as 3.0 conceded per match. Groningen have not kept a single clean sheet at home throughout the season and have allowed opponents an average of 4.0 goals, which strongly supports the visitors finding the net. Zwolle, meanwhile, generate an average of 1.57 xG and 5.33 shots on target, while their defense allows opponents 2.40 xG, so the hosts should have the conditions to break their poor seasonal average of 0.33 goals. Further support comes from the league BTTS average of 74%, making a scenario with both teams scoring more likely.

Both teams have recorded at least 2 goals in 100% of their league matches so far, which strongly supports the Over 1.5 goals market. Groningen concede as many as 4.00 goals per home match on average and have failed to keep a clean sheet, while PEC Zwolle average 14.33 shots and 5.33 shots on target per away match. The visitors create an average of 1.57 xG, whereas Groningen’s defense allows opponents 2.12 xG, which is why their projected goal tally is the highest at 1.85. Current form also points to open games: across their last five matches, Groningen averaged 4.4 total goals and PEC Zwolle 4.2, with both teams recording at least three goals in 80% of their matches. Over 1.5 goals is the safest choice, as even with below-par finishing from the hosts, Groningen’s very weak defense and the visitors’ attacking profile clearly increase the likelihood of at least two goals.

A draw at half-time followed by a PEC Zwolle victory is the most likely outcome, as the visitors have been level at the break in all three matches played so far, while Groningen have been trailing at half-time in two of three. The hosts score just 0.33 goals per home match and concede as many as 4.00, while their xG stands at only 0.87 compared with the 2.12 xG allowed to opponents. Zwolle create significantly more chances, averaging 14.33 shots and 5.33 shots on target, compared with Groningen’s 7.33 and 2.33, respectively, and they also have a higher finishing efficiency: 12% versus 5%. After the break, the hosts have yet to score and have conceded an average of 2.33 goals, whereas PEC average 1.00 goal, which particularly supports the scenario of the visitors deciding the match in their favor in the second half. The recommended HT/FT selection is X/2.