Guabirá vs Real Tomayapo: match statistics

Guabirá is the favorite in this match: at home they average 2.4 goals per game, have won 60% of home matches and have never failed to score at home (0% shutouts), while Real Tomayapo manage only 0.67 goals away and have 0% away wins. The hosts create significantly more and better chances — on average 17.6 shots and 6.8 on target at home with an xG of 1.91, whereas the visitors record 7.7 shots, 2.8 on target and xG 0.87 on the road. Defensively Tomayapo concede 3.5 goals on average away with an xG against of 2.07, while Guabirá concede 1.2 at home with xG against 1.13, indicating greater resilience from the hosts. Form confirms these differences — in the last five matches Guabirá have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1, averaging 2.0 points per game, whereas Tomayapo have only 0.6 points in their last five and a run of away defeats. Given the advantage in efficiency (conversion 14% vs 9%), shot volume and xG (2.4 and 1.91 for Guabirá vs 0.67 and 0.87 for Tomayapo), I predict a home win.

I predict BTTS - Yes with a 72% probability. Real Tomayapo concedes on average 3.5 goals per match this season, while Guabirá has xG_for 1.16 and a season scoring average of 0.8, so the visitors have a realistic chance to score. In their last 5 matches Guabirá has scored 10 goals (2.0 per match) and shows an 80% BTTS rate, whereas Real in their last 5 have scored 5 goals (1.0 per match) and concede on average 2.2 goals, indicating both teams have been creating and conceding goals recently. The league signal is additionally strong — the league records 68% matches with both teams scoring and an average goals per game of 3.15, and shot stats (home 9.6 shots/3.8 on target vs away 7.67/2.83) along with xG_against_away 2.07 suggest chances will be available. Against the pick is Real’s low season scoring output of 0.67 per match and the home side’s season BTTS only 40%, so I assign a 28% risk of one side failing to score (No Goal).

Real Tomayapo concedes on average 3.5 goals per match, and 83% of their games this season have finished Over 2.5 goals, while Guabirá has an attacking xG of 1.16 and averages 2.0 goals in the last 5 matches (10 goals in last 5). The xG vs opponent xG comparison (Tomayapo allows 2.07 xG, Guabirá concedes 1.33) yields an expectation of about 1.62 goals for the home side and 1.10 for the visitors, totaling ~2.72 goals. A Poisson distribution for a total of 2.72 suggests ~75% chance of Over 1.5 and ~51% for Over 2.5 (and ~29% for Over 3.5), however Tomayapo’s high 83% Over 2.5 rate and Guabirá’s 100% Over 2.5 in their last 5 matches push the probability of more goals higher. As a result I estimate Over 2.5 at ~56% (Over 1.5 ~78%, Over 3.5 ~32%) and recommend playing Over 2.5 as the strongest signal given the xG split (1.62 vs 1.10), Tomayapo’s propensity for high-scoring games and the home side’s scoring form.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a home win (X/1). The home side drew at the break in 100% of their seasonal matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 100.0) and have an average of 0.0 goals at half-time (scoredAVGHT_home = 0.0), which explains the high incidence of draws at the break. After the interval Guabirá averages 0.8 goals (scored_2hg_avg_home = 0.8) versus 0.33 for Real (scored_2hg_avg_away = 0.33), while the away side concedes an average of 3.5 goals per match (seasonConcededAVG_away = 3.5), increasing the probability of a turnaround in favor of the hosts. Additionally, the hosts have a higher xG (1.16 vs 0.87) and better form over the last five matches (dwwlw, 60% wins) compared to the visitors (llwll, 20% wins), hence X/1 is rated at 55%. A full-time draw I assess as moderate (X/X = 28%) due to the hosts’ low pre-break scoring efficiency and the high share of second-half goals (over05_2hg_percentage_home = 80% and away = 83%), whereas home leads at half-time (1/*) and away wins (2/*) are both considered unlikely overall (5% and 6%, respectively).