Guadalajara vs Juárez: match statistics

I back the home win: Guadalajara averages 0.8 points per game in the last 5 matches versus Juárez’s 0.6, with both teams scoring 6 goals in that period. In home matches Guadalajara averages 13 shots and 4 SOT and records average xG 1.39 with xG against 1.79, indicating chance creation despite finishing issues (home goals average 0.00, FTS 100%). Juárez have conceded 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 per game) and have a form of 1 win and 4 losses (lllwl), pointing to greater defensive instability. Guadalajara’s key edge is higher offensive activity (13 shots and 4 SOT per game) and a slightly better short-term goals-against balance (9 vs 11), so I give them a moderate advantage, although poor finishing limits a confident selection.

Both teams have a high BTTS rate in their last 5 matches: Guadalajara 60% and Juárez 80%, averaging 70%, above the league level of 64%. In the last 5 meetings each scored 6 goals (6 and 6) and conceded 9 and 11 goals respectively, i.e. an average of 1.8 and 2.2 goals per game, which favors both teams scoring. xG over the last 5 matches is 1.7 for Guadalajara and 1.27 for Juárez, with xG against of 1.56 and 1.89, showing both sides create chances and have defensive issues. The league average goals is 3.18 per game and the league BTTS is 64%, so statistically I expect a Goal/Goal match. On this basis I recommend BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of 75% versus 25% for No Goal.

Based on xG from the last 5 matches, Guadalajara has 1.70 xG per game and Juárez 1.27 xG; their defenses conceded on average 1.56 (Guadalajara) and 1.89 (Juárez) xG from opponents. Averaging each attack with the opposing defense yields an expected 1.80 goals for the home side and 1.42 for the visitors, totaling 3.22 goals in the match. This aligns with the league average of 3.18 goals per game and the fact that Over 2.5 occurred in 60% of Guadalajara’s last 5 matches and 80% of Juárez’s matches; additionally both teams conceded 9 and 11 goals respectively in their last 5 games (averages of 1.8 and 2.2 per match). A Poisson model on the 3.22 mean suggests roughly a 83% chance of over 1.5, 62% for Over 2.5 and 40% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal from the data is an over at the 2.5 line.

The most likely scenario is 2/2 (Juárez leading at the break and winning the match) — I assign it a 59% probability. The home side have not yet scored this season (0.0 goals per match) and average 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded by half-time; in available home stats they were trailing at the break in 100% of cases (trailingAtHTPercentage_home = 100.0). The hosts generate 1.31 xG per match but concede 1.41 xG and have already conceded in the 0–15 min interval (1.0), which increases the likelihood of Juárez leading before half-time. Over the full match the hosts have a 100% loss rate this season (losePercentage_home = 100.0) and only a 20% win rate in their last 5 matches (last5_winPercentage_overall_home = 20.0), so the visitors maintaining the lead (FT = 2) appears more probable than a turnaround. Therefore, beyond the 59% for 2/2 I allocate smaller probabilities of 20% to 2/X and 10% to X/2, while scenarios starting with the hosts leading are unlikely (2% combined).