Guaireña vs 12 de Junio VH: match statistics

12 de Junio sits 2nd in the table versus Guaireña's 7th and holds a record of 8-3-2 compared to the hosts' 6–3–4, having scored 20 goals against Guaireña's 16, indicating a seasonal advantage for the visitors. Away, 12 de Junio wins 71% of matches, averages 1.43 goals scored and concedes only 0.57 per game, has a shot conversion rate of 14% and fails to score in just 14% of matches, whereas Guaireña at home wins 57% of matches, averages 1.14 goals for and 1.14 against, has a 10% conversion rate and as many as 43% of matches without a goal. In the last 5 games the hosts scored 7 goals and average 2 points per game (3-1-1), while the visitors scored 8 goals and average 1.6 points per game (2-2-1), so short-term form is balanced but favors the hosts. Chance quality is also similar (home xG 1.44 vs away xG 1.34), however 12 de Junio’s key advantage is a lower xG against (0.87 vs 1.35) and a materially lower real goals conceded (0.57 vs 1.14), which speaks for the visitors. Given the higher league position, better goal difference (+6 away vs 0 for the hosts), higher conversion and a much lower share of matches without scoring, I tip the visitors to win; I allocate probabilities: home 30%, draw 25%, away 45%.

Statistics favor BTTS: Guaireña has a season-long BTTS of 67% and 60% in the last 5 matches, while 12 de Junio has a season BTTS of 43% but as high as 80% in the last 5 fixtures; the league records 56% of matches with both teams scoring. In chance-creation terms Guaireña posts xG 1.70 and averages 13.33 shots (5.33 on target), 12 de Junio registers xG 1.34 with 10.43 shots (4.00 on target), giving a combined season xG of roughly 3.04. In the last 5 matches combined xG rises to about 3.21 (1.56+1.65) and 12 de Junio concedes on average 1.4 goals in those five games, despite a season concession rate of only 0.57, indicating defensive weakening. Clean sheets are moderate (33% for Guaireña and 43% for 12 de Junio), but the high recent BTTS frequency (60% vs 80%) and elevated combined xG in recent games suggest both teams have realistic scoring chances. Overall I assess BTTS probability at 70% (Yes) vs 30% No, because the combination of season and last-5 form plus shot volume more strongly supports both teams finding the net.

Both teams show strong offensive metrics: Guaireña averages 1.67 goals per match (xG 1.70), 12 de Junio 1.43 goals per match (xG 1.34), giving a combined xG of 3.04 and a seasonal goals average of 3.10. Visitors concede only 0.57 goals per match versus 1.17 conceded by hosts, but after weighting shot statistics (13.33 for hosts vs 10.43 for visitors) and accuracy (5.33 vs 4.00) I project 1.50 goals for the hosts and 1.33 for the visitors, totaling 2.83. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.83 indicates about a 77% probability for Over 1.5 goals, about 54% for Over 2.5 goals and about 32% for Over 3.5 goals; historical Over1.5 rates are 83% for hosts and 57% for visitors, which reinforces the signal. Additionally, hosts have Both Teams to Score in 67% of matches, visitors in 43%, and scoring at least one goal occurred for hosts in 100% and for visitors in 86% of matches, suggesting a high probability of at least two goals. As a result the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation: back Over at 1.5, 77% per the model); Over 2.5 is moderately likely (54%), and Over 3.5 is less certain (32%).

In the last five matches the away side led at the break in 60% of games, while the home side did not lead at the break in any of those five matches; the average goals by half-time are 1.0 for the visitors and 0.2 for the hosts. Seasonal figures confirm the visitors’ strength: 2.29 points per match and a 71% win rate versus 1.83 points per match and a 50% win rate for the hosts, increasing the probability of an away final victory. Although the hosts have a higher offensive xG (1.7 vs 1.34), the visitors defend better by xG against (0.87 vs 1.12) and concede only 0.57 goals per match on average, which limits the hosts’ potential. The second half is active for both teams — there was at least one goal after the break in 100% of their matches — but the hosts score significantly better after the break in the last five matches (2.0 points in second halves vs 0.4 for the visitors), giving them only a moderate chance of a turnaround. On this basis the most likely scenario is the visitors leading at the break and winning in regular time (HT/FT 2/2), to which I assign the highest probability of 40%.