Guaireña vs Benjamin Aceval: match statistics

Guaireña has a small but noticeable edge over the last 5 matches: they scored 9 goals (1.8 per match) versus Benjamin Aceval’s 6 goals (1.2 per match), giving the home side a goal differential of +3 compared to the visitors’ -1. Defensively Guaireña conceded 6 goals in five matches (1.2 per match), while Benjamin Aceval conceded 7 (1.4 per match), indicating slightly better defensive organization from the hosts. Form supports the hosts’ advantage: Guaireña has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss and averages 1.6 points per match over the last five fixtures; they have won their last 2 matches (form 'dldww' ends in 'ww'), whereas Benjamin Aceval has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses and averages 1.4 points per match, with their most recent game a defeat (form 'wldwl' ends in 'l'). Considering the higher goals-for average (1.8 vs 1.2), lower goals-against average (1.2 vs 1.4) and better points-per-game return (1.6 vs 1.4), I tip a home win as the most likely outcome.

Seasonal data is largely unavailable (many fields show 0), so the analysis is based on the last 5 matches: both teams scored (BTTS) in 60% of their last 5 fixtures. Guaireña scored 9 goals in those 5 matches (1.8 per match) and conceded 6 (1.2 per match), while Benjamin Aceval scored 6 goals (1.2 per match) and conceded 7 (1.4 per match). Overall Guaireña’s matches produced 15 goals in 5 games (3.0 per match), and Benjamin Aceval’s matches produced 13 goals in 5 games (2.6 per match), which favors situations where both teams score and also concede. xG from the last 5 matches shows Benjamin Aceval with a higher attacking xG of 0.73 versus Guaireña’s 0.55, but Guaireña allows more xG against at 0.98 versus 0.59, further suggesting chances for both sides; therefore BTTS - Yes appears the stronger signal and I rate it 70% vs 30% for No.

Guaireña has averaged 1.8 goals scored (9 in 5 matches) and concedes 1.2 in the last 5 matches, while Benjamin Aceval averages 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded (6 and 7 goals in 5 matches). Over 2.5 rates are 60% for the home side and 80% for the away side over the last 5 fixtures, and BTTS occurred in 60% for both teams, indicating goal-producing games. xG shows 0.55 for Guaireña and 0.73 for Benjamin in attack with xG_against of 0.98 and 0.59 respectively, so although raw xG are moderate, actual outcomes (1.8 and 1.2) point to higher conversion. Based on this I estimate ~1.55 goals for the home team and ~1.25 for the away (total 2.80), which translates to a high probability for Over 1.5 (~88%) and meaningful chances for Over 2.5 (~70%). The best line to play is Over 1.5 (back Over, line 1.5), since 2.8 expected goals combined with historical Over 2.5 participation (avg 70%) provides the strongest and safest signal.

Guaireña have averaged 1.8 goals per game in their last 5 matches versus Benjamin Aceval’s 1.2 and have a better goal difference (conceding 1.2 vs 1.4), giving the home side an offensive edge of +0.6 compared to the visitors’ -0.2. Half-time data show the home team led at the break in 40% of matches, the visitors only in 20%, while half-time draws occurred in 40% of the home team’s matches and as much as 80% of the visitors’ matches — the averaged chance of an HT draw is around 60%. In second halves Guaireña perform better both in points and goals: they average 1.4 points in second halves versus 0.8 for the visitors and have a positive second-half goal difference of +1.0 (visitors 0.0). The home side scored 10 goals in first halves across the last 5 matches compared to 5 by the visitors. For these reasons the strongest signal is an HT draw with a home win at Full-Time (X/1) — I assign this scenario a 30% probability, while 1/1 I rate at 22% and X/X at 20%.