Guangzhou E-Power vs Changchun Yatai: match statistics

Guangzhou E-Power top the home table and have won 14 of their 20 matches this season, while Changchun Yatai have 8 wins and 9 defeats. The hosts are in excellent form: they have scored 13 goals, conceded just 3 and won 4 of their last 5 matches. At home, Guangzhou create significantly more chances, averaging 19.2 shots and 5.5 shots on target per match, with an xG of 2.03 compared with Changchun’s 1.09 away from home. The hosts’ defense concedes just 0.7 goals per home match and keeps a clean sheet in 60% of games, whereas the visitors allow opponents to score 1.78 goals on average and have not kept a single clean sheet away from home. Changchun can be effective, averaging 1.67 goals away from home, but their 56% away loss rate and weaker form, with just 2 wins in their last 5 matches, point towards the hosts.

The BTTS signal is clearly positive, as Guangzhou E-Power matches saw both teams score in 70% of cases, while the figure for Changchun Yatai was as high as 89%, compared with the league average of 56%. Both sides regularly concede goals: the hosts average 1.80 goals conceded per match and the visitors 1.78, with Changchun having kept a clean sheet on no occasion this season. Guangzhou average 1.80 goals scored, while Changchun average 1.67, and the low percentage of matches in which they failed to score—10% and 11%, respectively—further strengthens the chances of goals from both teams. In their last five matches, the hosts scored 13 goals and the visitors 12, while Changchun allowed opponents an average of 1.4 goals during this period. Guangzhou’s improved defensive form, with only 3 goals conceded in five matches, reduces confidence in the pick, but the visitors’ attacking profile and their 80% BTTS rate in this run still support a BTTS - Yes scenario.

Over 1.5 goals has landed in 90% of Guangzhou E-Power’s matches and 89% of Changchun Yatai’s fixtures, providing very strong support for the lowest line. Both teams also have high season goal averages: the hosts score 1.80 goals per match, while the visitors score 1.67, with averages of 1.80 and 1.78 goals conceded, respectively. Guangzhou have scored 13 goals in their last five outings, while Changchun have netted 12, and the visitors’ matches have gone Over 2.5 goals in all 5 cases. The hosts have recently recorded an xG of 1.94, while Changchun’s defense allows an average of 1.61 xG, making a game with at least two goals the most likely outcome.

Guangzhou E-Power are in clearly better form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.6 goals and conceding just 0.6, while Changchun Yatai have suffered 2 defeats during the same period and conceded an average of 1.4 goals. The hosts led at the break in 3 of their 10 league matches, and in their last five outings they were ahead after 45 minutes in 60% of cases, never going into half-time behind. Guangzhou’s attack also creates more chances, averaging 4.6 shots on target per match compared with the visitors’ 3.11, while their xG stands at 1.32 against the opponents’ 1.09. After the break, the hosts have recently averaged 1.4 goals, whereas Changchun have conceded 1.2 in this period, strengthening the scenario of them maintaining or extending a lead. The most likely outcome is therefore an HT/FT 1/1, with Guangzhou taking the lead before half-time and securing the win by full-time.