Guaraní vs Sportivo Ameliano: match statistics

Statistics indicate an evenly matched game: Guaraní at home averages 1.4 goals per match, 11.7 shots of which 4.2 are on target and xG 1.31, while Sportivo Ameliano away scores 1.2 goals with 12 shots and 3.6 on target and xG 1.18. In the last 5 matches Sportivo scored 8 goals and averaged 1.8 points per match, whereas Guaraní recorded 4 goals and 1.0 point per match, giving the visitors a clear advantage in form and offensive efficiency. On the other hand the hosts have home strengths: conversion rate 12% versus the visitors' 10%, 30% clean sheets at home versus 10% for Sportivo on the road, and 50% home wins versus 40% away wins for the visitors, which balances the chances. A significant factor is the percentage of matches without scoring — Guaraní failed to score in 40% of home games, while Sportivo failed to score in only 10% of their away matches, so the visitors are less likely to be involved in a goalless outcome. Considering the close xG values (1.31 vs 1.18), identical average goals conceded of 0.9 and the visitors' better form over the last five matches, a draw is the most likely result.

Strongest signal points to BTTS - Yes: Sportivo Ameliano has a seasonal BTTS rate of 80% and BTTS 100% in the last 5 matches, scoring 8 goals in that span (1.6 per match). Guaraní has a seasonal BTTS 40% and 40% in the last 5, scoring 4 goals in five (0.8 per match), but the seasonal home goals average is 1.4, so both sides retain offensive potential. Both teams generate similar xG: 1.31 for Guaraní vs 1.18 for Ameliano, and xG against is 1.12 vs 1.13, suggesting both create and concede chances. Additionally, average shots on target 4.0 (home) vs 3.6 (away) and average shots 12.9 vs 12.0 confirm activity; Ameliano keeps a clean sheet in only 10% of matches vs 40% for Guaraní, so it is more likely that both teams will score.

The xG and match-average based model produces expected goals: home ~1.22 (xG_for 1.31 vs opponents xG_against 1.13), away ~1.15 (xG_for 1.18 vs opponents xG_against 1.12), total 2.37 goals. With λ=2.37 the Poisson distribution implies probability of Over 1.5 ≈69%, Over 2.5 ≈42% and Over 3.5 ≈22% (Under correspondingly 31%, 58%, 78%). Seasonal indicators support this signal: home sides record Over 1.5 in 60% of matches, away sides in 80%, and Both Teams to Score occurred in 40% and 80% of matches respectively. Additionally, hosts average 12.9 shots (4.0 on target, conversion 11%), guests 12.0 (3.6 on target, conversion 10%), and in the last 5 fixtures the away team scored 8 goals versus 4 for the home team, increasing the likelihood of at least two goals. On this basis the strongest signal is Over at the 1.5 line — expected 2.37 total goals together with seasonal 60%/80% Over 1.5 rates yield the highest probability of success.

The home side drew at the break in 70% of their matches, and in the last 5 fixtures they had 100% clean halves at HT, indicating a strong tendency to be level after 45 minutes. The visitors scored 8 goals before the break in their last 5 games and had a 100% rate of matches with a goal before HT in those five, so they can score early or quickly break a halftime deadlock. In second halves the visitors have superior numbers: on average 1.6 points in second halves over the last 5 matches versus 0.4 for the hosts, and 40% second-half wins for the visitors versus 0% for the hosts, supporting a turnaround after the break by Ameliano. Seasonal xG is similar (home xG 1.31 vs away xG 1.18), but recent scoring form favors the visitors (goals average in last 5: visitors 1.6 vs hosts 0.8). Therefore the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a visitors' win after 90 minutes (X/2).