Guingamp vs Grenoble Foot 38: match statistics

Guingamp are the favorites: over the season they have scored 38 goals versus Grenoble’s 28, and at home they have a 40% win rate with an average of 1.20 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per match. Chance quality favors the hosts — Guingamp’s home xG is 1.46 compared to Grenoble’s 1.25 xG on the road, while Grenoble concedes an average of 1.77 xG per away match and Guingamp allows only 1.19 xG. The hosts control play more often (57% possession vs 45%), attempt more shots (12.8 vs 10.36) and have a significantly higher clean sheet rate at home (40% vs 7%). Recent form also supports Guingamp: in the last 5 matches they scored 3 goals, registered 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, averaging 1.0 point per match, whereas Grenoble have not won in their last 5, scored 4 goals and average 0.6 points per match. Grenoble have a slightly higher shot conversion (11% vs 9%), but their high away loss rate (57%) and inferior defensive metrics suggest they will struggle to take all three points, so I predict a home win.

I assign a 60% probability to No BTTS and 40% to BTTS - Yes. Guingamp at home averages 0.8 goals per match and has a 47% clean sheet rate; in the last 5 games they scored only 3 goals (0.6 avg) and conceded 5, indicating limited attacking efficiency from the home side. Grenoble records BTTS in 64% of matches this season and averages 1.14 goals per game, but concedes 1.57 goals on average and allows 1.77 xG, showing vulnerability to conceding. Both teams have similar xG_for at 1.25, which indicates chance creation, yet Guingamp fails to convert (xG_for 1.25 vs actual 0.8 goals), and their last 5 matches feature BTTS only 20% of the time. As a result, Guingamp’s 47% clean sheet rate and the home side’s low actual conversion outweigh Grenoble’s season BTTS rate, hence a stronger signal for “No Goal”.

The xG model indicates about 1.51 expected goals for Guingamp (xG_for 1.25 vs opponent xG_against 1.77) and 1.32 for Grenoble (xG_for 1.25 vs opponent xG_against 1.38), totaling ≈2.83 goals. A Poisson distribution translates this to ~77% probability for Over 1.5, ~54% for Over 2.5 and ~32% for Over 3.5. Seasonal metrics support this picture: Grenoble concedes at least 1 goal in 93% of matches and records Over 1.5 in 64% of games, while Guingamp has Over 1.5 in 53% of matches and 47% clean sheets. Additionally, Guingamp averages 11.21 shots (3.57 on target), Grenoble 10.36 (4.29 on target) and has a higher shot conversion rate 11% vs 8%, increasing the likelihood of finishing chances. For these reasons the strongest signal from the data is a bet on Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a draw at Full-Time (X/X). Guingamp drew at the break in 67% of home matches and finished home games as draws in 60% of fixtures, while also keeping a clean sheet at Half-Time in 87% of home matches with an average of just 0.13 goals conceded by the break. Grenoble averages 0.5 goals by Half-Time away, but concedes 1.57 goals per away match and has a higher xG against on the road (1.77) than Guingamp (1.38), indicating the visitors have the weaker defense. Both teams have similar attacking xG (1.25 vs 1.25), but Guingamp’s advantage in maintaining draws and superior home points (1.4 points per game versus Grenoble’s 0.71 points per away game) increase the likelihood of X/X. Therefore I assign X/X 38%, with lower probabilities for X/1 at 20% and X/2 at 9%, and scenarios where either side holds a lead at Half-Time are less likely.