Gyeongnam vs Ansan Greeners: match statistics

Gyeongnam sits 9th in the table while Ansan are 15th; hosts have scored 20 goals this season versus the visitors’ 17, with Gyeongnam conceding 25 and Ansan 29. In the last 5 matches Gyeongnam’s record is 1-2-2 (avg. 1.0 point per match), whereas Ansan have 1-0-4 (avg. 0.6 pts/match); during that span the hosts conceded 7 goals and the visitors 12. At home Gyeongnam average 1.56 goals per game on 11.78 shots and 3.67 shots on target, and the share of matches without a goal is only 11%; Ansan away average 1.2 goals per game with as many as 40% of away matches goalless for them. In terms of quality of chances Gyeongnam record an average xG of 1.34 with xG against 1.22, while Ansan have away xG 1.18 but xG against 2.18, indicating the visitors allow opponents to create far better chances. Considering the hosts’ superior scoring efficiency, the low percentage of matches without a goal (11% vs 40%) and Ansan’s weaker defense over the last five fixtures, I forecast a Gyeongnam victory (probability 60%), draw 25% and away win 15%.

A strong signal for BTTS is that Gyeongnam has a season BTTS rate of 82% versus Ansan's 40%, with a league average of 63%, favoring the “both teams to score” option. The hosts have recorded zero clean sheets (0%), while the visitors have only 20% clean sheets; seasonally Gyeongnam has scored 20 and conceded 25, and Ansan has scored 17 and conceded 29, indicating both sides tend to concede. In the last 5 matches both teams show BTTS at 60%: Gyeongnam has xG 1.84 with 5 goals scored and 7 conceded (xG against 1.34), whereas Ansan has xG 1.31 with 4 scored and as many as 12 conceded (xG against 2.55), which shows the visitors have been heavily exposed recently. Additionally, average shots 9.45 vs 9.0, shots on target 3.91 vs 4.2 and conversion rates 11% vs 13% suggest both teams are creating real scoring opportunities, therefore I forecast BTTS - Yes (72%) versus 28% for No Goal.

xG and goal analysis indicates a moderately high scoring potential: Gyeongnam has xG 1.24 for the season and 1.84 in the last 5 matches, Ansan 1.18 for the season and 1.31 in the last 5; therefore I project 1.54 xG for the home side and 1.25 xG for the away side, totaling 2.79 goals. Strong signal for Over 1.5 comes from the fact that 91% of Gyeongnam’s home matches finished over 1.5 goals, and 80% of Ansan’s matches did as well — average 85.5% (rounded to 86%). The 2.5 line is less clear: seasonally Gyeongnam has 73% of matches Over 2.5, Ansan 40% (average 56.5%) and the league average for Over 2.5 is 56%, so I assess the probability of Over 2.5 at about 57%. Over 3.5 is unlikely — only 36% of home teams and 20% of away teams reached that (average 28%), so Under 3.5 looks safer. Additionally, hosts concede on average 2.0 goals per match, visitors 1.4, and home clean sheets are 0% (away 20%), which further emphasizes Over 1.5 as the optimal market.

The primary scenario is a Half-Time draw and an away win (X/2) — Ansan records 60% draws at the break in away matches and wins 40% of fixtures, whereas Gyeongnam win only 18% at home and lose as many as 73% of games. Hosts lead at the break in 18% of matches and are trailing at half-time in 45% of cases, averaging 0.55 goals scored and 0.82 conceded before the break, which increases the likelihood of a HT draw. After the interval Ansan scores on average 0.8 goals in second halves, while Gyeongnam concedes on average 1.18 goals after the break, so the visitors have greater potential to decide the match in the second half. The teams’ xG figures are similar (1.24 vs 1.18), but both sides have high xG against (2.04 and 2.18), so the game should be open with goals after the break. Therefore I assign the highest probability to the X/2 scenario (30%), with X/X (20%) and 2/2 (15%) as realistic alternatives.