Gyirmót vs Csákvári TK: match statistics

Gyirmót is the clear favorite: they have won 5 of their last 5 matches, scoring 15 goals in total (averaging 3.0 per match) and conceding none in those five games. Csákvári TK over the same period have a record of 3 wins and 2 losses, with 4 goals scored and 4 conceded (averaging 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match) and an average of 1.8 points per match. The difference in form and efficiency is therefore very pronounced: the home side have a goal difference of +15 in the last 5 matches (15–0), while the visitors have 0 (4–4), giving Gyirmót the advantage both offensively and defensively. Considering these figures, I predict a Gyirmót win and estimate the probabilities as: home win 75%, draw 15%, away win 10%.

In the last 5 matches the home team scored 15 goals (avg. 3.0 per match) and conceded none (0.0), while the away team scored 4 goals in their last 5 (avg. 0.8) and conceded 4 (avg. 0.8). BTTS rate in the last 5 shows 0% for the home side and 20% for the away side, meaning only one of the away team’s five matches ended Goal/Goal. Away xG in the last 5 is 1.04 with xG against 1.31, indicating opponents create more chances for the away team than they produce; for the home side xG in the data is 0.0, which points to a lack of trust in this metric within the provided dataset. Home form 'wwwww' and a run of 5 clean sheets (ga_l5_home=0.0) is a strong defensive signal, and the away team averaging only 0.8 goals per match does not provide a strong counter-signal for BTTS. Due to these numerical trends and the absence of seasonal data (many values 0.0), the 'No Goal' pick looks stronger — I propose 75% for 'No' and 25% for 'BTTS - Yes'.

Gyirmót scored 15 goals in the last 5 matches (3.0 per match) and conceded none (0.0), while Csákvári in the same period has 4 scored and 4 conceded (0.8 per match for both metrics). Additionally, 80% of Gyirmót’s matches in those 5 games finished over 2.5 goals, whereas only 20% of Csákvári’s matches were over 2.5, which creates a mixed signal for the 2.5 line. To calculate expected goals I used the averages: (3.0 + 0.8)/2 = 1.90 for the home side and (0.8 + 0.0)/2 = 0.40 for the away side, totaling 2.30. A Poisson model with lambda = 2.30 yields ~66.9% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~40.4% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~20.1% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). The strongest signal from these data is therefore Over 1.5 — due to Gyirmót’s very high scoring average (3.0) and zero goals conceded (0.0), which increases the probability of a minimum of two goals in the match.

Gyirmót shows a clear advantage in form: the home side have won 5 of their last 5 matches (100%) and average 3.0 goals per game, while Csákvári average 0.8 goals and have won 3 of 5 (60%). At Half-Time Gyirmót led in 4 of 5 matches (80%) and averaged 1.6 goals by the break with 0.0 conceded, whereas the visitors led in only 1 of 5 (20%) and score on average 0.2 goals in the first half. After the break the hosts also dominate — they average 1.4 goals and concede 0.0 in the second half, while the visitors average 0.6 scored and 0.6 conceded after Half-Time, which suggests Gyirmót maintain their lead to the end. On this basis the strongest signal is a lead at the break and a home win (HT/FT 1/1) — hence 57% for 1/1 and a further 18% for the Half-Time draw and home win scenario (X/1); home defeat or turnaround scenarios (1/2, X/2, 2/2) are judged unlikely (6% combined) given Gyirmót’s 0.0 average goals conceded and 100% wins in the last 5 matches.