Hajduk Split vs Varaždin: match statistics

Hajduk Split is the favorite for this fixture: at home they average 1.50 goals scored and only 0.88 conceded, have a 63% win rate, 44% clean sheets and only 13% scoreless games, indicating defensive stability and attacking efficiency. Varaždin away scores 1.13 on average and concedes 1.38, has just a 31% away win rate and 19% clean sheets, while 25% of their away matches finish goalless, which limits their points potential. The gap in quality of chances is clear: Hajduk’s home xG-for is 1.87 with xG-against 1.09, whereas Varaždin’s away xG-for is 1.24 with xG-against 1.78; hosts average 15.25 shots (5.94 on target) versus the visitors’ 10.31 (3.56 on target). In the last 5 matches Varaždin have 2.0 points per game and have scored 7 while conceding 4, and Hajduk have 1.6 points with 6 scored and 4 conceded, so the visitors have the better recent run, but that advantage is offset by their weaker away metrics. Considering the superiority in xG, possession (59% vs 43%) and clearly better clean sheet figures for the hosts, I assess a Hajduk victory as the most likely outcome.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 63%, well above the league average of 54%, which is a strong indicator in favor of Goal/Goal (BTTS - Yes). Hajduk averages 1.44 goals per game (xG 1.50), while Varaždin averages 1.13 goals (xG 1.24), with average goals conceded of 1.25 and 1.38 respectively, so both teams statistically create and concede chances. Additionally, clean sheets occur less frequently for the away side (19%) than for the home side (31%), and the league averages 2.68 goals per match; Hajduk registers 4.06 shots on target per game versus Varaždin’s 3.56, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Although Hajduk produced BTTS in only 40% of their last 5 matches compared to Varaždin’s 60%, the seasonal profile edge (both on 63% BTTS, higher xG and the away side’s weaker clean sheet rate) favors a Yes bet with an estimated probability of 68%.

I integrated xG and goal averages: Hajduk has xG_for 1.50 and scores 1.44 on average, Varaždin has xG_for 1.24 and scores 1.13; accounting also that Varaždin concedes 1.78 xG on average and Hajduk 1.68, I obtained expected 1.55 goals for Hajduk and 1.35 for Varaždin (total 2.90). Both teams have high rates of matches over 1.5 goals (seasonOver15 81% for both) and BTTS 63% for both, indicating frequent goal events from both sides. A Poisson model with λ=2.90 yields roughly a 79% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and about 55% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5), while Over 3.5 has only ~33% support. Additionally Hajduk averages 4.06 shots on target and 13.06 shots per home match vs 3.56 and 10.31 for Varaždin, which confirms the hosts’ offensive edge and justifies recommending Over 1.5 as the strongest signal; Over 2.5 is moderately likely, and Over 3.5 too risky.

A draw at half-time appears most likely — both teams were level at the break in 50% of matches, and Varaždin kept a clean sheet at half-time in 63% of games. After the break Hajduk clearly has the advantage: the home side average 0.69 goals scored and 0.50 conceded in second halves, equating to 1.69 points in those periods, while Varaždin average 0.44 goals scored, 0.94 conceded and 0.88 points. Seasonally Hajduk score 1.44 goals with an xG of 1.50 versus Varaždin’s 1.13 goals and xG 1.24, and the hosts win 50% of matches against the visitors’ 31%, indicating the home side more often decide the outcome after the break. For these reasons the most probable scenario is a draw at half-time with Hajduk winning the final result (X/1).