Haka vs Klubi-04: match statistics

Haka is the clear favorite: in the last 5 matches the home side scored 17 goals and have a record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, yielding 2.0 points per game, while Klubi-04 scored only 3 goals, failed to win any match and have 0.4 points per game. At home Haka averages 3.67 goals with 15 shots and 7.67 shots on target and a conversion rate of 24%, whereas Klubi-04 on the road averages 0.67 goals, 7 shots and 3 shots on target with a 10% conversion. The qualitative gap is confirmed by xG: the hosts register 1.87 xG per home match versus 0.91 xG for Klubi-04 away, and Haka’s opponents generate 1.1 xG at their ground compared to 1.44 xG against Klubi-04, which suggests better control of situations by Haka. Additionally, Haka has a 67% home win rate and 0% home losses with 33% clean sheets, while Klubi-04 has yet to record an away win (win% 0) and endures 67% away losses, which amplifies the home advantage. Based on this, I forecast a Haka victory, considering the superiority in goals (3.67 vs 0.67), shots on target (7.67 vs 3) and better xG (1.87 vs 0.91).

Both teams have a high seasonal BTTS rate: Haka 67% and Klubi-04 67%, while both teams also have 0% clean sheets this season, which strongly supports a scenario where both sides regularly concede and score. In Haka’s last 5 matches they scored 17 goals (3.4 avg) and conceded 6 (1.2), whereas Klubi-04 scored only 3 goals (0.6 avg) and also conceded 6 (1.2), so Haka is on an offensive run and Klubi-04 struggles in attack but still allows goals. xG confirms Haka’s advantage: seasonal xG for Haka is 1.06 versus xG against Klubi-04 of 1.44, and in the last 5 matches Haka has 2.04 xG versus 0.95 for Klubi-04; additionally Klubi-04 averages 3.0 shots on target per match compared to Haka’s 2.0, giving them some shooting potential. The overall league context is less BTTS-friendly (league BTTS 40% and 70% of matches with a clean sheet), but in this specific matchup the team data (67% BTTS for both and 0% clean sheets) and Haka’s offensive form are decisive, so the forecast leans toward BTTS - Yes.

xG is 1.06 for Haka and 0.91 for Klubi-04; accounting for opponents' defensive xG (Klubi-04 xG against 1.44, Haka 1.16) I estimate around 1.25 expected goals for Haka and 1.04 for Klubi-04, total 2.29. Seasonally both teams have 67% of matches over 1.5 goals and 0% over 3.5, and Haka has scored 17 goals in the last 5 matches (avg. 3.4), which increases the likelihood of at least 2 goals in the match. On the other hand Over 2.5 occurs in the season in only 33% of both teams' matches and the combined xG 2.29 is slightly below the 2.5 threshold, so I rate Over 2.5 as moderate (approx. 48%). Both teams have 67% of matches with BTTS and 0% clean sheets, which suggests goals from both sides are frequent and further strengthens the signal for Over 1.5; therefore I recommend playing the over at the 1.5 line.

I select 1/1: Haka led at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches (60%), while Klubi-04 did not lead at half-time in any of those five fixtures (0%), so the home-side advantage at half-time is clear. In their last 5 matches Haka averaged 1.2 goals by half-time and 3.4 goals per match (1.2 and 3.4), whereas Klubi-04 averaged 0.0 goals by half-time and 0.6 goals per match (0.0 and 0.6), which strongly supports Haka maintaining their lead through to full-time. Haka also have a higher xG (1.06 vs 0.91) and more shots on average (8 vs 7), even though Klubi-04 register more shots on target (3 vs 2) and a slightly higher conversion rate (10% vs 8%); overall Haka create more chances and hold a quantitative advantage. Form corroborates these figures: Haka have a 60% win rate in their last 5 home matches with a sequence 'dwlww', while Klubi-04 over their last five have 'llldd' with a 0% win rate; additionally Haka scored 9 first-half goals in those 5 games, increasing the likelihood of a 1/1 outcome. Therefore I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 scenario (42%), with half-time draw to home win (X/1 22%) or draw/draw (X/X 14%) being less likely, and situations where the visitors lead at half-time judged as practically impossible (0%).