Hamburger SV vs Augsburg: match statistics

Hamburger SV averages 1.43 goals scored at home and concedes 1.21, while Augsburg on the road scores 1.08 and concedes 2.00, giving the hosts a defensive edge. HSV registers on average 4.79 shots on target with a conversion of about 11%, whereas Augsburg has 4.23 shots on target and an 8% conversion, meaning the hosts are more efficient at finishing chances. Additionally, HSV has 14% clean sheets at home, while Augsburg has 0% clean sheets away and suffers 69% away defeats versus 29% home defeats, which reinforces the home-field advantage. In the last 5 matches Augsburg scored 8 and conceded 11 goals with an average of 1.2 points per game compared to HSV’s 0.8 points, and xG is similar (1.43 vs 1.39), therefore I forecast a home win, although a draw remains possible given the limited finishing by both teams.

Both teams show metrics favoring BTTS: Hamburg’s season BTTS rate is 50%, Augsburg’s 62%, with the league average at 57%. In the last 5 matches Hamburg had BTTS in 80% of games, Augsburg in 60%, and average goals conceded over that period are 1.6 (Hamburg) and 2.2 (Augsburg), indicating vulnerability to conceding for both sides. Offensive xG is similar: 1.43 for Hamburg and 1.39 for Augsburg, with xG against 1.51 vs 1.57 — both teams create and concede chances. Additionally, Augsburg has 0% clean sheets compared to Hamburg’s 36%, and matches over 2.5 goals account for 50% (Hamburg) and 69% (Augsburg), further boosting the likelihood of goals from both sides. Based on these specific figures the strongest signal is the “BTTS: Yes” scenario, therefore I recommend BTTS = Yes.

The combined xG for both teams is 2.82 (1.43 for Hamburger SV and 1.39 for Augsburg), which in a Poisson model translates to roughly a 77% chance of at least 2 goals, 54% for at least 3 goals and 31% for at least 4 goals. Season-long metrics confirm an offensive bias: Hamburg has Over 1.5 in 71% of matches and Over 2.5 in 50%, while Augsburg posts 92% and 69% respectively, with the league average for Over 2.5 at 62%. Both sides concede heavily (Hamburg 1.71 goals conceded per match, Augsburg 2.00) and the percentage of matches where both teams scored is 50% and 62% respectively, increasing the likelihood of goals from both ends. Hamburg is slightly more efficient in conversion (11% vs 8%) with on average 12.5 shots and 4.64 on target, compared to Augsburg’s 13.08 shots and 4.23 on target, so I expect the total goals to exceed 1.5. Therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal from the presented data.

Hamburger SV has superior home metrics: on average 1.36 goals scored and 1.5 points per home match versus 1.08 goals and 0.77 points for Augsburg away; home win percentage is 43% vs 23% for visitors. A draw at the break is frequent — hosts were level at half-time in 43% of their season fixtures and in 4 of their last 5 home matches (80%), while Augsburg trailed at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches (60%). After the break Hamburg’s advantage is pronounced: on average 1.0 goals and 1.64 points in second halves versus 0.54 goals and 0.62 points for Augsburg, and the hosts scored 7 goals in minutes 46–60 compared to 2 for the visitors. xG is similar (1.43 vs 1.39), but Hamburg is more efficient (shot conversion 11% vs 8%) and registers more SOT (4.64 vs 4.23), increasing the chance of a post-break turnaround; therefore the most probable and strongest signal is a half-time draw and a home win at full-time (X/1).