Hammam-Lif vs CA Bizertin: match statistics

Hammam-Lif sit only 11th in the standings, but they have collected 8 points from their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 2 draws while suffering just one defeat. The hosts have scored 3 goals during this period, but their biggest strength is their defense, which has conceded just 2 goals—an average of 0.4 per match. CA Bizertin are 2nd, yet the visitors’ current form is clearly poor: they have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and picked up only 3 points. The Bizerta-based side have scored just 2 goals and conceded 7, averaging 1.4 goals allowed per game. Given the significant difference in recent defensive form and the home advantage, Hammam-Lif should be considered more likely to win, although the low scoring output of both teams increases the likelihood of a draw.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as both teams recorded a Goal/Goal outcome in only 20% of their last 5 matches, compared with a league average of just 28%. During this period, Hammam-Lif averaged 0.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, while CA Bizertin scored only 0.4 goals per match. The hosts kept a clean sheet in 100% of the available matches this season, further limiting the visitors’ chances of scoring. Although CA Bizertin has posted an xG of 1.88 across its last five matches, its actual tally was just 2 goals, while the Hammam-Lif defense allowed opponents only 0.49 xG per match. Therefore, a result in which at least one team fails to score is more likely than both teams finding the net.

The league profile is exceptionally defensive: the average is only 1.71 goals per match, while the 2.5-goal line has been surpassed in just 14% of fixtures. Hammam-Lif have averaged 0.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded over their last five matches, with only 20% of those games producing Over 2.5 goals. CA Bizertin have been inefficient in front of goal, averaging 0.4 goals scored in their last five appearances, while conceding 1.4 goals per match. The visitors created chances worth 1.88 xG during this period, but their low goal tally and the hosts’ defense, which allows just 0.49 xG, limit expectations of an open game. The projected total of 1.55 goals points primarily to a clear preference for Under 3.5 goals, as at least four goals are required for this bet to lose.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Hammam-Lif win, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 67% of their last five matches and were never trailing at that stage. CA Bizertin were behind at half-time in 80% of the matches in this sample, conceding an average of 1.0 goal before the break, while Hammam-Lif conceded no first-half goals. Across their last five matches, the hosts averaged 1.6 points and lost only 20% of the time, whereas the visitors recorded 0.6 points, suffered defeats in 80% of their matches, and conceded an average of 1.4 goals. Hammam-Lif’s advantage is further strengthened by the superior quality of chances: their average xG is 1.71, while their opponents scored just 0.4 goals per match over their last five appearances. The low league average of 1.71 goals per game and the 86% clean-sheet rate favor a cautious first half, after which the hosts should settle the match.