Hansa Rostock vs Jahn Regensburg: match statistics

Hansa Rostock are the favorites: at home they average 2.00 goals per game and have an xG of 2.00 with 6.12 shots on target, while Jahn Regensburg score 1.18 goals per away game and have an xG of 1.58 with 4.24 shots on target. The hosts concede 1.41 goals per home game (average xG against 1.30), and the visitors concede 1.65 goals away (average xG against 1.75); in the last 5 matches Hansa conceded 5 goals and Regensburg 9. Form corroborates the advantage — Hansa’s last 5 are 'wlwwd', scoring 10 goals and averaging 2.0 points per game, whereas Regensburg are on 'llwdl' with 5 goals and 0.8 points per game. Additionally, Hansa fail to score in only 12% of home matches versus 29% scoreless away matches for Regensburg, and shot conversion is 12% vs 9%, which increases the probability of goals for the hosts. Considering the higher xG (2.00 vs 1.58), better conversion and form (2.0 PPG vs 0.8 PPG), I tip a home win.

The BTTS scenario appears more likely: the league has a high BTTS rate of 64%, and in the last 5 matches both teams have BTTS at 60% each. Regensburg has a seasonal BTTS of 59% and concedes an average of 1.65 goals per game (53 goals conceded this season), with only 12% clean sheets — meaning in 88% of matches it fails to keep a clean sheet. Hansa at home scores on average 1.59 goals and has 35% clean sheets (so in 65% of home games it concedes at least one goal); its xG_for at home is 1.48 versus xG_against_away 1.75 (average ~1.62 for hosts). Regensburg, conversely, has xG_for 1.58 versus xG_against_home 1.46 (average ~1.52 for visitors), and in the last 5 matches Hansa have scored 10 and conceded 5 (2.0 and 1.0 average) while Regensburg scored 5 and conceded 9 (1.0 and 1.8 average). Considering the league 64%, strong xG figures and Regensburg’s low clean sheet rate, I assign BTTS 72% vs 28% and recommend the

Both teams frequently exceed 1.5 goals per match: Hansa have 88% of such games and Regensburg 82%, strongly favoring Over 1.5. The xG model shows 1.62 xG for the home side and 1.52 xG for the visitors (total 3.14), so expected goals are close to 3. In the last 5 matches Hansa averaged 2.0 goals (10 goals) and Regensburg 1.0 (5 goals), and both teams had 60% of matches Over 2.5, which supports a moderate chance for Over 2.5 (seasonally 65% Hansa vs 47% Regensburg). The 3.5 line is less likely — season Over3.5 is 35% (Hansa) and 29% (Regensburg), so I assign it a much lower probability. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation: over on the 1.5 line).

Hansa Rostock has superior season metrics: average goals 1.59 per game versus Jahn Regensburg’s 1.18, and a higher win rate 47% versus 24%. First-half statistics are, however, balanced — Hansa scores 0.53 goals on average by half-time, Regensburg 0.65, and the home side led at the break in 7 matches (41%) compared to 6 (35%) for the visitors. The strongest signal comes from the second half: Hansa scores 1.06 goals on average after the break and collects 1.47 points on average in second halves with a goal difference of +4, while Regensburg scores 0.53 goals after the break and averages 0.82 points with a -9 goal difference. Additionally, the hosts have better shot efficiency (conversion 14% vs 9%) and comparable xG (1.48 for Hansa vs 1.58 for Regensburg), which suggests Hansa’s advantage in capitalizing on chances, especially after half-time. Based on these figures the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time with a home win after the break (X/1), which is why I select this variant as the strongest signal.