Hansa Rostock vs Stuttgart II: match statistics

Hansa Rostock holds a clear statistical edge: they have scored 65 goals and conceded 43 this season, while Stuttgart II have 51 scored and 60 conceded, indicating superior efficiency for the home side. At home Hansa averages 2.00 goals scored per match and concedes 1.61, whereas Stuttgart II average 1.11 goals scored and 2.00 conceded on the road, so the attacking and defensive advantages favor Rostock. Quality of chances also favors the hosts: average home xG is 1.96 versus 1.52 xG for the visitors away, shots on target per match 6.06 versus 4.06 and a conversion rate of 12% versus 8% for Stuttgart. In the last 5 matches Hansa have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (average 1.6 points per match), while Stuttgart II have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses (average 1.0 point) and an away goal difference of -16. Considering differences in efficiency, xG and average goals conceded (1.61 vs 2.00) and the advantage in shots on target, I estimate the probabilities as roughly: Home win 65%, Draw 20%, Away win 15%.

I recommend BTTS - Yes because both teams have high seasonal BTTS rates: Hansa 72% and Stuttgart II 67%, versus a league average of 64%. The signal is strong in recent form — in the last 5 matches Hansa had BTTS in 80% of games and Stuttgart II in all 5 (100%); in those matches Hansa averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Stuttgart averaged 2.4 scored and 2.0 conceded. Seasonal goal averages confirm goal exchange: Hansa scores 1.72 and concedes 1.33 per game, Stuttgart scores 1.11 and concedes 2.0, and xG shows similar offensive/defensive profiles (xG for 1.6 vs 1.52, xG against 1.56 vs 1.63). Both teams create chances (shots on target 5.33 vs 4.06) and have low clean sheet percentages (17% and 11%), increasing the likelihood both sides will score. Additionally, over 2.5 rates are high (72% and 67%) and over 2.5 + BTTS combinations are common (61% and 56%), so the stronger data signal is BTTS - Yes.

Statistical analysis shows a clear tendency toward matches with at least 2 goals: Hansa have 83% of home games with Over 1.5, and Stuttgart II 89% of their matches, providing a strong historical basis for Over 1.5. The xG-based model (Hansa xG 1.6 vs xG against Stuttgart II 1.63; Stuttgart II xG 1.52 vs xG against Hansa 1.56) projects 1.62 expected goals for the home side and 1.54 for the visitors, totaling 3.16 goals. Additionally, Hansa average 5.33 shots on target per game versus Stuttgart’s 4.06 and have a higher conversion rate (13% vs 8%), while BTTS rates are 72% and 67%, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Seasonal Over 2.5 rates are 72% (Hansa) and 67% (Stuttgart II), and in the last 5 matches both teams recorded Over 2.5 in 60%/80% of cases, so Over 2.5 is also highly probable. Given the strongest combination of historical indicators and projected goals I recommend Over 1.5 as the primary signal (est. 92%), while Over 2.5 is assessed at ~70% and Over 3.5 at ~36%.

The strongest signal points to 1/1: the home side led at the break in 44% of matches and average 0.94 goals in the first half versus 0.33 for Stuttgart II, so Hansa has a clear advantage in scoring before half-time. The hosts win 50% of matches with an average of 1.72 goals per game and xG 1.60, while the visitors win only 22% with 1.11 goals and xG 1.52; additionally Hansa register more shots on target (5.33 vs 4.06) and have a higher conversion rate (13% vs 8%), which supports maintaining the lead. At half-time Hansa keep a clean sheet in 83% of matches, and BTTS at the interval is only 17% for both sides, so the risk of conceding before the break is low, although after the break both teams average 0.78 goals and Stuttgart II concedes 1.39 goals on average in the second half. Given this, I assign a 40% probability to 1/1 as the base scenario, 15% to 1/X and 12% to X/X, while a turnaround in favor of the visitors (e.g. 1/2 or 2/1) is assessed as unlikely. Therefore I recommend 1/1 as the strongest HT/FT signal based on 44% leads at the break, 50% home wins and Hansa’s 83% clean sheets at half-time.