Hassania Agadir vs CR Khemis Zemamra: match statistics

Hassania Agadir is in better form: in the last 5 matches they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 4 goals and conceding only 2, while CR Khemis Zemamra in their last 5 have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses with a 6-8 goal record. At home Hassania average 0.92 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per match and record 38% clean sheets, whereas the visitors away score 1.08 and concede 1.62 goals with only 8% clean sheets. The visitors generate slightly more quality chances (average xG 1.33 and 3.69 shots on target per match) compared to the hosts (xG 1.18 and 3.08 shots on target), but the higher number of goals conceded by the visitors (8 in the last 5) reduces their effectiveness. Additionally, the hosts average 2 points in the last 5 matches versus 0.8 points for the visitors and have a better goal differential on the pitch (-2 for the hosts vs -7 for the visitors), which supports a Hassania win.

I forecast No for BTTS with a 60% vs 40% edge because Hassania Agadir has a strong defense: 43% clean sheets this season and only 2 goals conceded in the last 5 matches (0.4 goals per match). The hosts average 0.93 goals this season and 0.8 in the last 5 (4 goals total), while CR Khemis Zemamra have 1.08 this season and 1.2 in the last 5 (6 goals), so the main obstacle to BTTS is the hosts’ weaker attacking output. Expected goals are similar (home xG 1.24 vs away 1.33, xG against 1.28 vs 1.33), indicating chances should arise but may not convert for the hosts. The visitors register more average shots (11.23) and shots on target (3.69) than the hosts (9.79 and 3.0) and have a season BTTS of 54% vs the hosts’ 50%, giving them scoring potential; however the hosts’ superior historical clean sheet rate and their low BTTS in the last 5 (20%) support the ‘No’ scenario.

xG and defensive calculations give a combined expected total of 2.60 goals: Hassania’s attacking xG is 1.24 while CR Khemis’s defensive xG is 1.33, translating to ~1.29 expected goals for the home side; the reverse combination (away attacking xG 1.33 vs home defense 1.28) yields ~1.31 for the visitors. A Poisson model with µ=2.60 indicates a 73% probability for Over 1.5 goals, 48% for Over 2.5 and 26% for Over 3.5; these values align with seasonal rates (over 1.5: home 50%, away 77%; over 2.5: 36%/62%). In the last 5 matches Hassania scored 4 and conceded 2 (avg. 0.8/0.4), while CR Khemis scored 6 and conceded 8 (avg. 1.2/1.6), which confirms more goals occur in away fixtures. Additionally, hosts have 43% clean sheets versus just 8% for the away side, with BTTS at 50% (home) and 54% (away), increasing the likelihood of at least two goals in the match. Based on the above figures the strongest signal is to play Over 1.5 (recommended line 1.5, side: "over").

The analysis indicates the strongest scenario is a Half-Time draw and a Hassania Agadir win at Full-Time (X/1): the home side drew at the break in 71% of their home matches and in 80% of their last five games. After the break Hassania averages 1.14 goals (AVG_2hg_home = 1.14) and in their last five matches they averaged 1.6 points from second halves and won the second half in 40% of cases. CR Khemis Zemamra concedes an average of 1.62 goals per match and 0.92 goals after the break (seasonConcededAVG_away = 1.62, conceded_2hg_avg_away = 0.92), which increases the hosts’ chances of mounting a turnaround in the second half. Additionally recent form favors the hosts: Hassania won 60% of their last five matches versus 20% for the visitors (last5_winPercentage_overall_home = 60% vs last5_winPercentage_overall_away = 20%), and xG shows only a slight advantage for the visitors 1.33 vs 1.24 (xg_for_avg_away = 1.33, xg_for_avg_home = 1.24), which is offset by the visitors’ weaker defense. Therefore I assign the highest probability to the X/1 scenario, with a moderate probability for X/X and a lower probability for 1/1.