Hassania Agadir vs Kawkab Marrakech: match statistics

I predict a home win (Hassania Agadir). Hassania averages 0.93 goals at home, while Kawkab scores only 0.5 goals away, and the percentage of matches in which visitors failed to score is as high as 50% versus 36% for hosts — a clear advantage in offensive efficiency for the home side. Although Kawkab registers more shots on the road (10.5 vs 8.93) and has a slightly higher xG (1.28 vs 1.18), their conversion is low (5% vs 10%), so created chances seldom convert into goals. Over the season the visitors have a better goals-against record (25 versus Hassania’s 38), but for this fixture the average goals conceded per game are similar (1.00 conceded away by Kawkab vs 1.07 for the hosts), and Hassania keeps clean sheets at home more often (36% vs 21%). Both teams have 3 goals in the last 5 matches and average 1 point per game in that period, so home advantage and superior finishing will be decisive; therefore I estimate probabilities at 50% for the home win, 30% for a draw and 20% for the away win.

I assess BTTS as less likely in this match. Kawkab Marrakech averages only 0.5 goals away and fails to score in 50% of their games; their BTTS rate in the last 5 matches is just 20%. Hassania Agadir has a seasonal BTTS of 47% with an average of 1.27 goals at home, but they keep a clean sheet in 47% of home matches; both teams have BTTS below the league average of 52% (47% vs 43%). In the last 5 meetings both sides scored 3 goals each (0.6 per match) and conceded 5 each (1.0 per match), indicating poor finishing; combined xG is about 1.37 + 1.28 = 2.65, yet the visitors’ shot conversion is only 5% versus 11% for the hosts, and shots on target are 2.86 vs 3.87 — this weakens the visitors’ scoring prospects. Considering Kawkab’s 50% no-goal rate, Hassania’s 47% clean sheets and low recent BTTS form (40% for hosts and 20% for visitors in the last 5), I pick No BTTS with a 70% probability versus 30% for Yes (BTTS - Yes).

I project a total of around 2.30 goals: Hassania Agadir 1.33 and Kawkab Marrakech 0.97 — a compromise between high xG (1.37 for Hassania and 1.28 for Kawkab, total 2.65) and actual scoring efficiency this season (averages 1.27 and 0.50, total 1.77). Hassania averages 11.2 shots and 3.87 SOT per match with an 11% conversion, while Kawkab has 10.5 shots, 2.86 SOT and a 5% conversion, so the home side holds a clear advantage in chance conversion. Season shares of matches over 1.5 goals are 73% for the home team and 50% for the away side; combining this with projected xG and efficiency gives the 1.5 line a strong signal for Over — estimated probability ~67%. For the 2.5 line signals are mixed: xG suggests a combined potential ~2.65 (which would imply close to 50% chance for Over 2.5), but historical Over 2.5 rates are 47% (home) and 14% (away), so I assess Over 2.5 at ~40%, while Over 3.5 is unlikely (seasonal 7% and 0%), around 20%. Given consistent xG, higher SOT (3.87 vs 2.86) and the high share of home matches over 1.5, the best play is Over 1.5.

Hassania Agadir led at half-time in 7 matches (47% of games), with an average goals by half-time of 0.8 versus 0.14 for Kawkab, which strongly favors the home side after 45 minutes. The hosts win 47% of matches this season compared to just 7% for the visitors, and the home advantage in shots on target (3.87 vs 2.86) and conversion rate (11% vs 5%) increases the likelihood of maintaining a lead through full-time. Additionally, Hassania keep a clean sheet at half-time in 80% of matches, and both teams scored in the first half in only 7% of cases, so if a goal is scored by half-time it will most often be a one-goal lead for the hosts. The home xG is 1.37 versus 1.28 for the visitors, confirming a moderate creative edge and supporting the 1/1 Half-Time/Full-Time scenario as the most probable.