Haverfordwest County vs Holywell: match statistics

Haverfordwest County are in clearly stronger form, having collected 7 points from their last five matches compared with Holywell’s 1. The visitors have lost all 4 away games, conceding as many as 4.25 goals per match on average and failing to keep a single clean sheet. The hosts are not particularly solid defensively either, allowing opponents 1.8 goals per game at home, but Holywell have already conceded 29 goals in 8 rounds this season. Haverfordwest also hold the edge in the quality of chances created on home turf, with an average xG of 1.36 compared with Holywell’s 1.18 away from home, while their opponents generate 1.94 xG on average against them. Holywell regularly find the net on the road, averaging 1.25 goals, so the hosts are not a risk-free favorite. However, the visitors’ woeful defensive record strongly supports a home win.

Both teams have recorded BTTS at 100% this season, and neither has kept a clean sheet yet. Haverfordwest score an average of 1.50 goals and concede 3.00, while Holywell score 1.25 goals but allow their opponents as many as 4.25 goals per match. In their last five games, Holywell recorded BTTS in 100% of matches and conceded an average of 3.4 goals, which significantly strengthens the hosts’ chances of scoring. Haverfordwest had BTTS in 60% of their matches during this period, but their xG stands at 1.19, while Holywell allow opponents an average xG of 1.52. The visitors register an average of 4.75 shots on target per match, while the hosts have conceded an average of 1.6 goals in their last five games, making a goal for Holywell the most likely outcome as well.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5, as at least 2 goals have been scored in 100% of both teams’ matches so far. Haverfordwest concede an average of 3.00 goals per match, while Holywell concede as many as 4.25, with neither team having kept a clean sheet yet. In their last five matches, Holywell allowed opponents an average of 3.4 goals, and matches involving this side finished Over 2.5 goals in 80% of cases. The attacking potential is also supported by the xG figures: the home side averages 1.04, while the visitors average 1.18, with the two defenses allowing 1.69 and 1.94 xG respectively. The projected total of 3.20 goals also points towards Over 2.5, although the 1.5 line remains the clearly safer choice.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Haverfordwest County win at full-time. The hosts have drawn at half-time in 100% of their last five matches, scoring and conceding no goals before the break, which strongly supports an initial draw. Holywell were trailing at half-time in 60% of their recent matches and conceded an average of 1.6 goals during that period, making a lead at the break and subsequent advantage for the visitors unlikely. Haverfordwest won 40% of their last five matches, while Holywell failed to win any and suffered defeats in 80% of them. In addition, the visitors have conceded an average of 3.4 goals per match in their recent run, while both teams have scored in every match this season, increasing the likelihood of the hosts deciding an open game after the break.