HB Køge vs Hillerød: match statistics

HB Køge remain without a win after six rounds, having scored just 3 goals, while their last five matches produced only 2 draws and 3 defeats. Hillerød sit higher in the table and are clearly in better current form: they have scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches, recording 2 wins, whereas the hosts have managed just 3 goals over the same period. The visitors also create more clear-cut chances away from home, averaging 7 shots on target per match compared with HB Køge’s 3, while their xG stands at 1.61 versus 1.56 for the hosts. Both defenses are prone to errors, with HB Køge conceding an average of 2.00 goals at home and Hillerød 2.33 away, and neither side has kept a clean sheet. The visitors’ weakness is their record of three defeats in three away matches so far, but their superior recent attacking efficiency gives them a slight edge.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by the very poor defensive records of both teams: HB Køge concede an average of 1.67 goals, while Hillerød concede as many as 2.33 goals per match, with a 0% clean-sheet rate for both sides. The hosts have scored 2.00 goals per game so far, with an average xG of 1.65, while Hillerød create chances worth an average of 1.61 xG and record as many as 7.0 shots on target per match. Hillerød have been in good offensive form across their last five appearances, scoring an average of 2.4 goals, while HB Køge allowed their opponents 1.6 goals. The main risk to the both-teams-to-score scenario is HB Køge’s current finishing form, as they have scored just 0.6 goals over their last five matches and recorded BTTS in 40% of games. Nevertheless, Hillerød conceded an average of 1.6 goals and 1.93 xG during this period, so the hosts should have enough opportunities to end their poor scoring run.

HB Køge concede an average of 1.67 goals per match, while Hillerød have scored as many as 2.4 goals per game across their last five fixtures, clearly supporting at least two goals in the match. The hosts have an average xG of 1.65, whereas their opponents allow 2.15 xG on average, meaning that despite Køge’s recent drop in finishing efficiency, they should still create scoring chances. Hillerød generate 1.61 xG per match and average 7 shots on target, while the hosts’ defense allows opponents 1.68 xG. Over 1.5 goals has landed in 100% of Køge’s matches, and with the league average standing at 2.78 goals, Over 1.5 is the strongest and safest signal.

Hillerød are showing significantly better current form: over their last five matches, they averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 points per game, while HB Køge managed just 0.6 goals and 0.4 points. The visitors were leading at the break in 60% of those matches, whereas the hosts were trailing at half-time in 40%, with HB Køge averaging 0.4 goals before the interval compared with Hillerød’s 1.0. The visitors’ advantage should persist after the break, as they averaged 1.4 goals in the second half across their last five appearances, while Køge managed only 0.2. Seasonal data also point to vulnerabilities in Hillerød’s defense, which concedes an average of 2.33 goals, but the hosts are winless in their last five matches and are failing to exploit this weakness. The most likely outcome is therefore an HT/FT scenario in which Hillerød take the lead before half-time and hold on to it through to the final whistle.