Hearts vs Rangers: match statistics
Hearts vs Rangers: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Hearts played against Rangers in Premiership (Scotland). The game was played on May 4, 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Recent form
Hearts has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.00 points per game. Rangers has 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss, with 2.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Hearts scores 1.76 goals per game and allows 0.85. Rangers scores 2.00 and allows 1.00. Games in this league average 2.74 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 44% of Hearts's games and 62% of Rangers's. The Over 2.5 rates are 50% and 56%, compared with league averages of 51% for BTTS and 52% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Rangers has the higher season xG average, 1.90 to 1.67 per game. Hearts takes 14.6 shots per game, while Rangers takes 16.8.
First-half and second-half trends
Hearts leads at halftime in 38% of its games and scores 1.06 goals per game after halftime. Rangers leads at halftime in 50% and scores 1.21 after halftime.
When the teams score
Hearts's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (16 goals). For Rangers, it is minutes 76-90+ (19 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Premiership games average 2.74 goals. Both teams score in 51% of games, and 52% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 3 previous meetings were available. The record was 2 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 3.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a home win (1) because Hearts are particularly strong at home: they win 76% of home matches, have not suffered a home defeat (0% losses) and concede only 0.59 goals per game on their own turf. Rangers, however, are in strong attacking form — 17 goals in their last 5 matches and an average of 6.31 shots on target away, with 1.88 goals per away game. Hearts can also deliver offensively at home (1.88 goals scored per game and 5.41 shots on target), and their clean sheet rate is 59% versus 38% for Rangers, giving the hosts a defensive edge. xG is similar: 1.73 xG for Hearts at home compared to 1.79 xG for Rangers away, which implies that differences may come down to finishing efficiency. Considering Hearts’ unbeaten home record and the fact they have no home matches without scoring (0% matches without a goal), I assign a higher probability to the hosts, while acknowledging a draw is possible given the visitors’ attacking form.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams show high season BTTS rates: Hearts 61% and Rangers 63%, while the league average is 50%. In the last 5 matches the BTTS signal is even stronger — Rangers have 80% BTTS vs Hearts 60%, and Rangers scored 17 goals in those 5 matches (avg 3.4) vs Hearts 8 goals (avg 1.6). Offensive-defensive metrics confirm mutual potential: Hearts score 2.11 goals per game with xG 1.99 vs xG conceded to Rangers 1.39, and Rangers have xG 1.79 vs xG conceded to Hearts 1.05, indicating scoring opportunities for both sides. Additionally both teams have comparable shots on target (6.28 vs 6.31) and identical conversion rate 12%, and season clean sheets are 33% (Hearts) and 38% (Rangers), so a complete shutout of one side is unlikely. Based on this I rate BTTS as more probable and assign 78% for 'Yes' vs 22% for 'No', driven by the combined high season 61–63% BTTS, recent form 80% for Rangers and concrete xG and shot data supporting goals for both teams.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Both teams display strong offensive metrics: Hearts average 2.11 goals with xG 1.99, while Rangers average 1.88 goals with xG 1.79; opponents concede xG of 1.05 (home) and 1.39 (away), yielding expected goals of 1.69 for Hearts and 1.42 for Rangers (total 3.11). Season shares of matches over 1.5 goals are 78% (Hearts) and 81% (Rangers), and both teams scored in 61% and 63% of games respectively, supporting a both-teams-to-score scenario. A Poisson model with lambda=3.11 estimates ~82% chance of Over 1.5, ~60% for Over 2.5 and ~38% for Over 3.5, consistent with seasonal over-2.5 rates (61%/50%) and over-3.5 (44%/25%). Based on this, the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation: back Over at the 1.5 line), while Over 2.5 remains a moderately attractive alternative (~60%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I select the 2/2 scenario: Rangers leading at half-time and winning at full-time. In the last five matches they led at the break in 60% of games (3/5) and average 1.0 first-half goals over that period. The visitors have won 80% of their last five matches (4/5) and score an average of 3.4 goals per game in that span, while Hearts averaged 1.6 goals per game in the same period, giving Rangers a short-term advantage. Seasonally Hearts are strong at home (average 2.11 home goals and a 61% win rate), but in their last five matches they have not led at half-time (0% HT leads and only 0.2 first-half goals on average), so their chances of holding a lead after 45 minutes are diminished. xG differences are small (home xG 1.99 vs away xG 1.79), but the combination of a 60% HT lead rate and an 80% win rate in the last five matches provides the strongest signal for the 2/2 scenario, so I recommend it.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Hearts | Rangers | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Rangers is 20% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / game - Hearts · 2.4 pts / game - Rangers
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Rangers is 14% better for: goals scored per game.
1.76 goals / game - Hearts · 2 goals / game - Rangers
Hearts is 18% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.85 goals / game - Hearts · 1 goals / game - Rangers
Hearts scores in 88% of games (30 of 34 meczów), while Rangers keeps a clean sheet in 35% (12 of 34 meczów).
Rangers scores in 88% of games (30 of 34 meczów), while Hearts keeps a clean sheet in 47% (16 of 34 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Hearts
Over / Under - Rangers
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Rangers is 17% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.53 pts / game - Hearts · 1.79 pts / game - Rangers
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Hearts - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 38% of games and wins 65%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Rangers - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 50% of games and wins 56%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 2.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 2.0 | 3.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +8 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (16 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +11 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (19 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +12 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Hearts
Rangers
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premiership).
Teams vs league
| Hearts | Liga | Rangers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.62 | 2.74 | ▲ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 44% | 51% | ▲ 62% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 52% | ▲ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 47% | 28% | ▲ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | • 76% | 75% | ▲ 82% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 76% | 79% | • 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Hearts's perspective: 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against Rangers. Games average 3.67 goals, and both teams scored in 67% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Hearts vs Rangers?
The Premiership match finished Hearts 2:1 Rangers. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Hearts and Rangers?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Hearts won 2, Rangers won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Hearts vs Rangers?
Hearts score 1.76 goals per game on average and Rangers 2.00. The Premiership average is 2.74 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 44% of Hearts's matches and 62% of Rangers's.
What form are Hearts and Rangers in?
Over the last 5 games Hearts have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Rangers 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Hearts vs Rangers?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Hearts vs Rangers: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.