Hebar 1918 vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas: match statistics

Hebar 1918 have a very poor home record: they lost their only match so far, concede an average of 3 goals, and have yet to keep a clean sheet. However, the hosts create more chances than Chernomorets, averaging 15 shots compared to their opponents’ 6.5, while their xG stands at 1.78 versus 0.81 for the visitors. Chernomorets are considerably more solid defensively, conceding an average of 1 goal in away matches and recording 1.39 xG against, but both of their away games ended in draws. The visitors have scored just 3 goals in 4 matches this season, limiting their ability to exploit Hebar’s defensive problems. Given the hosts’ attacking potential and Chernomorets’ clear tendency to draw, the most likely outcome is a share of the points.

The signal for both sides to score is strengthened by their current form: BTTS occurred in 80% of Hebar’s and 60% of Chernomorets’s last 5 matches. During this period, Hebar averaged 1.8 goals scored but conceded as many as 2.4, while the visitors scored 1.0 goal and allowed opponents 1.2. The hosts have recently recorded 1.38 xG against 1.62 xG against, indicating matches with chances at both ends, while Chernomorets generates an average of 1.09 xG. The season data is less conclusive, as Hebar kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches and scored only 0.5 goals per game, whereas Chernomorets has not recorded a single clean sheet. BTTS at 100% in the visitors’ matches so far, combined with Hebar’s poor recent defensive form, slightly favors the “Yes” option, even though the league averages only 47% of matches with goals from both teams.

The seasonal profile of both teams is clearly conservative: Hebar scores and concedes 0.5 goals per match, while Chernomorets averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded. In each team’s matches so far, more than 2 goals have never been scored, giving the 3.5 line strong historical support. The attacking xG output also does not point to an open game, with average attacking xG of 1.08 for the home side and 0.81 for the visitors. Hebar’s last five matches have been significantly more high-scoring, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 2.4 conceded, but Chernomorets allowed only 1.2 goals per match during this period. The projected total of 2.13 goals gives an advantage to the Under 3.5 goals bet, which retains a margin even for a 2:1 result.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and after the final whistle, as Chernomorets have been level at the break in both of their matches so far this season, while Hebar have yet to go into half-time level. The visitors have not scored before the break and have kept a 100% clean-sheet record in this period, which limits the hosts’ chances of taking an early lead. In their last five matches, both teams have been level at half-time 40% of the time, while Chernomorets have averaged just 0.2 goals in that period. Hebar have slightly better average xG figures, 1.08 compared with 0.81, but their recent form has been poor: they have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and conceded an average of 2.4 goals. Therefore, following an even start, maintaining the draw appears more likely than a convincing home win.