Hebei Kungfu vs Nantong Zhiyun: match statistics

Nantong Zhiyun holds a clear advantage in the table (4th vs 14th) and in season form: 7 wins and 5 draws versus Hebei’s 2 wins and 4 draws, with a goal difference of 14 scored and 10 conceded compared to 7 scored and 18 conceded. In the last 5 matches the visitors have scored 6 goals and average 1.6 points per game, while the home side have scored 3 goals and average 0.8 points per game, confirming Nantong’s superior form. Defensively the visitors perform better away — conceding 0.86 goals per game and keeping a clean sheet in 43% of matches, whereas the hosts concede 1.13 goals per game at home and have only 25% clean sheets. Hebei dominates possession (55% vs 43%) and produces more shots (10.75 vs 8.86) and more shots on target (3.13 vs 2.86), but converts them less efficiently (6% conversion vs 8% for Nantong) and fail to score in 50% of their home matches. Considering the visitors’ lower goals conceded, higher average points in the last 5 matches (1.6 vs 0.8) and Nantong’s very high away draw rate (71% vs 25% for Hebei), the most likely outcome is a draw.

Hebei have displayed a very solid defense this season: 71% clean sheets and only 0.57 goals conceded per match on average, with season attack xG 1.39 and average goals scored 1.29. At home they record a low BTTS rate of 29% for the season, suggesting matches at their stadium rarely see both teams score. Nantong shows the opposite signals: season BTTS 57% and 60% in the last 5 matches, scoring 6 goals in the last 5 (1.2 per match) and recent attack xG 1.5, so the visitors are more likely to score. However, Hebei’s last 5 matches show a weakening defense — 7 goals conceded in 5 matches (1.4 per match) and their recent attack xG has dropped to 0.79, which increases the risk of the opponent scoring. Overall, weighing the hosts’ very high 71% clean sheets and low season BTTS 29% against the visitors’ signals (57%/60%), I assign a 60% probability to No BTTS and 40% to BTTS; top pick: 'No'.

xG-based projection: Hebei has an attacking xG of 1.39 while Nantong’s defense concedes 1.43 xG, yielding approximately 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Nantong’s attacking xG is 1.15 and Hebei’s defense concedes 0.93 xG, giving about 1.04 expected goals for the visitors; total expected goals = 2.45. The 2.45 total is slightly below the 2.5 line, and both teams have 71% of matches under 2.5 (home 71%, away 71%), which supports Under 2.5. At the same time the 1.5 line is low: the home team averages 1.29 goals and have 100% of matches with at least one goal, so the 2.45 projection strongly argues for Over 1.5. The percentage of matches over 3.5 is only 14% for both teams and the combined xG is far from 3.5, therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

The most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a Home win at Full-Time (X/1): a draw at the break occurs in 57% of matches for both teams, and the home side ultimately wins 86% of matches versus 14% for the visitors. The hosts score on average 0.29 goals by Half-Time but 1.0 goal after the break and have 86% of matches with at least one goal in the second half, which suggests a turnaround after the break. Visitors average 0.43 goals by Half-Time and concede 0.43 goals on average after the break, which further facilitates the hosts' ability to equalize or score after the break. Additionally, the hosts’ xG is 1.39 versus 1.15 for the visitors, and the home team wins second halves in 71% of cases, boosting the chance of a Full-Time win following a draw at Half-Time. As a result, I assigned a 43% probability to the X/1 scenario as the strongest signal; a full-time draw receives 12%, and the combined probability of an away win across all scenarios is 9%.