Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Dalian Huayi: match statistics

Heilongjiang Lava Spring have greater attacking potential at home, averaging 1.38 goals with an xG of 1.52, while Dalian Huayi score just 1.00 goals away from home and record an xG of 1.30. The hosts also register more shots on target at their own stadium, averaging 5.00 compared with the visitors’ 2.71, and enjoy more possession (54% to 43%). Both defenses are vulnerable, as Heilongjiang concede 1.75 goals per home game and Dalian concede 1.71 away from home, with neither side recording a clean sheet in any of these matches. However, the hosts’ form is poor, with 0 wins and 16 goals conceded in their last 5 matches, which significantly increases the likelihood of a draw. Nevertheless, Dalian have lost 71% of their league away matches and failed to score in as many as 43% of them, so the hosts have a marginally higher chance of winning.

The “Yes” pick is supported by the high seasonal rate of matches in which both teams score: 67% for Heilongjiang and 57% for Dalian, compared with the league average of 54%. The hosts average 1.56 goals scored, while Dalian concede as many as 1.71 per match and have not kept a single clean sheet this season. Heilongjiang, meanwhile, have conceded 16 goals in their last five matches—3.2 per game—with opponents recording an average xG of 1.94 against them. Dalian are not particularly clinical, averaging 1.00 goal and failing to score in 43% of their matches, but the hosts’ poor recent defensive form significantly increases their chances of finding the net. The most likely scenario is therefore one in which the hosts exploit the visitors’ defensive vulnerability, while Dalian respond with at least one goal.

The home side scores an average of 1.56 goals per match, while Dalian Huayi concedes as many as 1.71, which clearly strengthens the case for a Heilongjiang goal. The away team has not kept a single clean sheet, while at least 2 goals were scored in 71% of its matches. Heilongjiang has conceded 16 goals in its last five matches, averaging 3.2 per game, with an xG against of 1.94, so the visitors should also create opportunities to score. The combined projected xG for both sides is 2.87, compared with a league average of 2.63 goals, supporting a match scenario with at least two goals. The strongest selection is Over 1.5, as this line has been surpassed in 78% of the home side's matches and 71% of the away team's matches this season.

A draw at half-time is the most likely starting point, as Heilongjiang were level after 45 minutes in 7 of their 9 matches, or 78% of the time. Dalian should also not dominate decisively from the outset: they average 0.86 goals before the break, compared with 0.89 for the hosts, although the hosts’ last five matches produced a half-time deficit in as many as 60% of cases. After the interval, the advantage shifts towards the visitors, as Heilongjiang conceded an average of 2.0 goals in the second half across their last five matches, while their overall average of goals conceded is as high as 3.2. The hosts are winless in their last five appearances and have collected just 0.4 points per match during that run, whereas Dalian average 1.0 point and lost 40% of those matches, compared with 60% for their opponents. The HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time and a Dalian win at full-time best combines Heilongjiang’s strong tendency towards level first halves with their significantly weaker defensive performance after the break.