Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina: match statistics
Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Hellas Verona played against Fiorentina in Serie A (Italy). The game was played on April 4, 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Recent form
Hellas Verona has 1 win, 0 draws and 4 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.60 points per game. Fiorentina has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with 1.60 points per game.
Scoring records
Hellas Verona scores 0.73 goals per game and allows 1.73. Fiorentina scores 1.17 and allows 1.47. Games in this league average 2.45 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 50% of Hellas Verona's games and 67% of Fiorentina's. The Over 2.5 rates are 60% and 60%, compared with league averages of 47% for BTTS and 47% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Fiorentina has the higher season xG average, 1.42 to 1.20 per game. Hellas Verona takes 10.8 shots per game, while Fiorentina takes 13.7.
First-half and second-half trends
Hellas Verona leads at halftime in 13% of its games and scores 0.30 goals per game after halftime. Fiorentina leads at halftime in 20% and scores 0.73 after halftime.
When the teams score
Hellas Verona's most productive scoring window is minutes 16-30 (7 goals). For Fiorentina, it is minutes 46-60 (10 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Serie A games average 2.45 goals. Both teams score in 47% of games, and 47% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Fiorentina are favorites due to clearer form: in the last 5 matches they scored 9 goals and have a 3W-2D record, averaging 2.2 points per game, while Hellas scored only 3 goals in their last 5, have a 1W-4L record and average 0.6 points per game. This season the visitors have scored 35 goals versus the hosts' 22, they have a higher shot conversion rate (10% vs 8%) and maintain greater away possession (51% vs Hellas’ 43%). Chance-creation metrics are relatively close: home xG for the hosts is 1.23 versus 1.16 xG for the visitors away, and average shots per game are 10.64 for Hellas and 11.13 for Fiorentina; Hellas, however, registers more shots on target (4 vs 2.93). Defensively the numbers are comparable—Hellas concedes 1.64 goals per game at home, Fiorentina concedes 1.6 away—but Hellas has a high home loss rate (64%) and low win rate (7%), increasing the risk of a poor home performance. Considering the visitors’ advantage in efficiency and form (9 vs 3 goals in the last 5 and 2.2 vs 0.6 pts per game), I forecast a Fiorentina win; I estimate probabilities as: away win 60%, draw 25%, home win 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams show high seasonal BTTS rates: Hellas at home 73% and Fiorentina away 60%, versus a league average of 47%, indicating both sides’ propensity to score. In the last 5 matches the signals are mixed — Hellas has only 40% BTTS and scores 0.6 goals on average, while Fiorentina posts 80% BTTS and scores 1.8 on average, so recently the visitors have been more likely to score. xG and defensive metrics reinforce this picture: Hellas produces xG 1.68 and concedes 1.33 goals on the season (1.8 in the last 5), and Fiorentina allows xG 1.62 and concedes 1.6 on average, suggesting chances are created at both ends. Hellas fail to score in just 13% of home matches, while Fiorentina are shut out in 40% of away games — simple multiplication gives roughly a 52% chance of both teams scoring, but after adjusting for Hellas’s higher xG and Fiorentina’s weaker defense I increase the probability. Therefore I assess BTTS at 65% vs 35% and the recommended pick is BTTS - Yes (Goal/Goal).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model based on xG and defensive data yields expected goals: 1.65 for Hellas Verona (average of 1.68 xG from Hellas’ attack and 1.62 xG typically conceded by Fiorentina opponents) and 1.19 for Fiorentina (average of 1.16 xG from Fiorentina’s attack and 1.21 xG typically conceded by Hellas opponents), totaling approximately 2.84 goals. A Poisson model for a sum of 2.84 predicts probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) ≈78%, at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) ≈54% and at least 4 goals (Over 3.5) ≈32%. Seasonal statistics support these estimates: Hellas had over 1.5 goals in 73% of matches, Fiorentina in 80%, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 53% and 67% of matches respectively; additionally both teams scored in 73% of Hellas matches and 60% of Fiorentina matches. Form also boosts the over: Fiorentina scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches conceding 4, Hellas conceded 9 goals in the last 5 matches, and Hellas averages 16.27 shots and 4.4 shots on target per match versus 11.13 and 2.93 for Fiorentina. Based on this, the recommendation is to play the over at the 1.5 line, as this is the strongest signal (≈78%) supported by xG, seasonal metrics and both teams’ form.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is X/2 (draw at half-time, Fiorentina win) — I assign it a 35% probability because in their last 5 matches Fiorentina won 3/5 (60%) and were level at the break in 60% of games, while Hellas have 1 win in their last 5 (20%) and did not lead at half-time in those matches (0%). Over the past 5 matches Fiorentina averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, whereas Hellas averaged 0.6 scored and 1.8 conceded, which clearly indicates superior form for the visitors. Seasonal metrics show Hellas generate more chances (xG 1.68 vs 1.16 and 16.27 shots vs 11.13), so they can create opportunities, but that xG advantage has not translated into recent results for Hellas. The second half could be active — Hellas register 1.47 second-half goals on the season, yet in the last 5 matches Fiorentina dominated after the break (winning the second half in 80% of cases and posting a better second-half points balance; last 5: 2.6), therefore I expect the visitors to decide the match in their favor.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Hellas Verona | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 27% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Fiorentina is 167% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / game - Hellas Verona · 1.6 pts / game - Fiorentina
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Fiorentina is 60% better for: goals scored per game.
0.73 goals / game - Hellas Verona · 1.17 goals / game - Fiorentina
Fiorentina is 18% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.73 goals / game - Hellas Verona · 1.47 goals / game - Fiorentina
Hellas Verona scores in 50% of games (15 of 30 meczów), while Fiorentina keeps a clean sheet in 17% (5 of 30 meczów).
Fiorentina scores in 73% of games (22 of 30 meczów), while Hellas Verona keeps a clean sheet in 17% (5 of 30 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Hellas Verona
Over / Under - Fiorentina
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Hellas Verona - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 13% of games and wins 10%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Fiorentina - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 20% of games and wins 20%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 100% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (17). Late-goal balance (76-90): -16 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Hellas Verona
Fiorentina
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Hellas Verona | Liga | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.47 | 2.45 | ▲ 2.63 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 50% | 47% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 60% | 47% | ▲ 60% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 31% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 67% | 65% | ▲ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | • 77% | 77% | ▲ 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Hellas Verona's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 0 losses against Fiorentina. Games average 3.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
The Serie A match finished Hellas Verona 0:1 Fiorentina. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Hellas Verona score 0.73 goals per game on average and Fiorentina 1.17. The Serie A average is 2.45 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Hellas Verona's matches and 67% of Fiorentina's.
What form are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina in?
Over the last 5 games Hellas Verona have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Fiorentina 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
The statistical background for Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.