Hellas Verona vs Vicenza: match statistics

Hellas Verona have significantly stronger home numbers: they average 3 goals per match, while Vicenza score only 1 away from home. The hosts also create more high-quality chances, as confirmed by an xG of 2.21 compared with the visitors’ 1.44, while their advantage in shots on target stands at 8 to 4 per match. Verona’s home defense concedes an average of 1 goal and keeps a clean sheet in 50% of matches, whereas Vicenza allow opponents 2.5 goals per away game and have yet to keep a clean sheet. In their last five matches, Verona have scored 10 goals, three more than Vicenza, although their form remains somewhat inconsistent. The visitors have failed to score in 50% of their away fixtures, so the hosts’ superiority in chance creation and finishing makes a bet on their victory the most convincing option.

The signal for BTTS - Yes is clear, as Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 100% of their matches, while Vicenza have recorded the same outcome in 80% of their last five fixtures. The hosts average 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, whereas the visitors have scored 1.4 goals in their last five matches while conceding 1.8. Neither defense has kept a single clean sheet, significantly increasing the likelihood that both sides will convert their chances. Their attacking potential is supported by the xG figures: Verona create an average of 1.72, while Vicenza record 1.44, with the hosts allowing opponents 1.53 xG. A BTTS rate above the league average of 60%, combined with the high number of shots on target—5.5 for Verona and 4.0 for Vicenza per match—supports the Goal/Goal selection.

The profile of both teams clearly points to goals: Hellas Verona average 2.0 goals scored, while Vicenza concede as many as 2.5 goals per match. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.72 xG, while their opponents allow 1.39 xG, supporting a projection of around 1.62 goals for Verona. Vicenza are less clinical, but their average of 1.44 xG, combined with Verona conceding 1.53 xG, indicates a realistic chance of approximately 1.42 goals for the visitors. In their last five matches, both teams recorded games with Over 2.5 goals in 80% and 60% of cases respectively, while both teams scored in 80% of those matches. The strongest pick is Over 1.5, as each team had at least 2 goals in 100% of their matches so far this season, with an expected total of 3.04 goals.

The strongest HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Hellas Verona win, as Vicenza were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches and did not lead in any of them. Over the same period, Verona recorded more favorable first-half figures: they scored an average of 0.6 goals and conceded just 0.4, while Vicenza conceded an average of 1.0 goal. After the break, the hosts significantly increase their attacking potential, scoring an average of 1.5 goals at home compared with Vicenza’s 0.5 away from home. Verona’s advantage over the full match is also reflected in their average of 2.0 points at home, compared with Vicenza’s mere 0.5 points away, as well as in their shot-conversion rate of 13% versus 6%. The visitors concede an average of 2.5 goals away from home, so after an even start, the most likely outcome is for Verona to turn the match in their favor in the second half: X/1.