Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island: match statistics

Henan Jianye have clearly superior home metrics: they average 1.5 goals scored with an xG of 1.66, while Qingdao Youth Island score only 1.1 goals away from home and create chances worth 1.22 xG. The hosts also register more shots—15 per match compared with 11—and average 4.7 shots on target versus 3.3 for their opponents. Qingdao’s away defense concedes as many as 2.0 goals per game and allows opponents 1.74 xG, which suits Henan’s attacking profile well. Recent form also slightly favors the hosts, who have collected 8 points and scored 10 goals in their last five matches, while the visitors have managed only 4 goals during that period. Qingdao sit high in 2nd place in the table, but their away goal difference stands at -9, making a Henan victory the most likely outcome.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Qingdao Youth Island’s weaker current attacking efficiency: they have averaged only 0.8 goals over their last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in just 20% of those games. Henan Jianye concede an average of 0.82 goals per match this season and keep a clean sheet in 27% of their appearances, limiting the visitors’ chances of scoring. Qingdao have failed to score in 30% of their league matches, while the hosts are in a strong offensive phase, averaging 2.0 goals and an xG of 1.70 per game across their last five outings. The hosts should create chances against a team conceding an average of 2.0 goals, but the more likely scenario is that at least one side—Qingdao in particular—fails to get on the scoresheet. Henan’s high 73% BTTS rate this season and 100% over their last five matches are counterarguments, but they are offset by the visitors’ clear attacking decline.

Henan should create clearly better scoring opportunities, as they average 1.36 goals scored, while Qingdao Youth Island concede as many as 2.00 goals per match; additionally, the hosts have scored 10 times in their last five fixtures. However, the scale of this advantage does not automatically point to a four-goal game, as Henan’s average xG stands at 1.26 and the visitors’ at 1.22, suggesting a combined total closer to 2–3 goals. Qingdao have scored just 0.8 goals per match in their last five games, while Henan have allowed opponents only 0.82 goals on average throughout the season. The Under 3.5 goals line has landed in 82% of Henan’s matches and 60% of Qingdao’s, while the hosts have not scored more than three goals in a single match all season. Therefore, the most stable selection is Under 3.5 goals, even with Henan’s strong current attacking form.

Henan Jianye have started matches very strongly: in their last five games, they have been leading at the break in 80% of cases, scoring an average of 1.4 goals before half-time and conceding just 0.2. Over the same period, Qingdao Youth Island have scored only 0.4 goals in the first half on average and have been trailing at half-time in 40% of their matches. Across the season, the hosts concede an average of 0.82 goals per game, while the visitors allow their opponents 2.0 goals on average, with a high average xG conceded of 1.74 compared with Henan’s 1.27. The hosts’ advantage should persist after the interval, as Qingdao concede an average of 1.2 goals in second halves. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is Henan leading at half-time and winning the match.