Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng: match statistics

Henan has a clear advantage at home: at home they average 17 shots (5 on target) and 1.5 goals per match with xG 1.85, while Shandong on the road have only 6 shots (1 on target), xG 0.76 and average 0 goals scored. Visitors concede an average of 4.0 goals per away match and have 100% FTS (failed to score away), whereas Henan concede 1.0 at home and have 0% FTS, giving the hosts both defensive and offensive superiority. In the last 5 matches Henan record 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses with 5 goals for and 7 against and average 1.4 points per match, while Shandong have 3 wins and 2 losses with 11 scored and 8 conceded and average 1.8 points per match. The xG comparison (1.85 for Henan at home vs 0.76 for Shandong away) and the difference in shots on target (5 vs 1) clearly favor the hosts. Based on this, I predict a Henan victory.

I project BTTS - Yes at 70% vs 30% No because Henan at home has BTTS 67% this season and averages 2.0 goals per game with xG 1.79 and 15.67 shots per match, 6.0 on target and a 13% conversion. The visitors’ seasonal stats are contradictory — Shandong has a seasonal goals average of 0.0 and 0% BTTS with 100% of matches without scoring, but in the last 5 matches the visitors scored 11 goals (2.2 avg), have xG 1.7 and 60% BTTS in those five games, indicating an offensive improvement. Defensively Shandong looks vulnerable: they concede 4.0 goals on average this season with xG against 1.9, while Henan generates xG 1.79 with good efficiency, so the hosts have a strong chance to score; additionally Shandong concede 1.6 goals on average in their last 5 matches. The league BTTS level is 59% and both teams have 60% BTTS in their last five matches, which reinforces the Yes signal despite the guests’ seasonal anomalies in clean sheets and lack of goals. Therefore, given Henan’s 67% home BTTS, the 59% league trend and Henan’s attacking edge (15.67 shots and 6.0 shots on target), I select BTTS - Yes as the strongest signal.

A simple xG-based model yields 1.85 xG for Henan (attacking xG 1.79 vs opponent xG conceded to Shandong 1.90) and 0.92 xG for Shandong (attacking xG 0.76 vs opponent xG conceded to Henan 1.07), totaling 2.77 expected goals. Henan averages 15.67 shots and 6.0 on target with a conversion rate of 13%, while Shandong records 6.0 shots and only 1.0 on target (conversion 0%), which increases the likelihood of home-created scoring opportunities. Season-to-date both teams have 100% of matches over 2.5 goals, and in the last 5 matches Henan has 60% over 2.5 while Shandong has 100% over 2.5, further supporting the Over 2.5 line. Since the expected total 2.77 is clearly above 2.5, I recommend Over 2.5 as the strongest signal; at the same time 2.77 < 3.5 so Under 3.5 remains more likely than Over 3.5.

I assess the most likely scenario as Henan Jianye leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1). The home side average 0.67 goals by HT (scoredAVGHT_home = 0.67) and 2.0 goals per match overall (seasonScoredAVG_home = 2.0), whereas Shandong Luneng score 0.0 by HT (scoredAVGHT_away = 0.0) and concede an average of 3.0 goals by HT (concededAVGHT_away = 3.0) and 4.0 goals per match (seasonConcededAVG_away = 4.0). The xG differential (1.79 vs 0.76), shots average (15.67 vs 6.0) and shots on target (6.0 vs 1.0) favor the hosts; additionally Henan have won 67% of matches this season versus 0% for Shandong (winPercentage_home 67.0 vs winPercentage_away 0.0). On this basis I assign a 60% probability to 1/1, a moderate 15% chance to a half-time draw with a home win at full-time (X/1), and a lower 8% probability to a full-time draw (X/X) — the hosts also have a higher shot conversion rate (shot_conversion_rate_home 13.0 vs 0.0). Furthermore Shandong have not led at half-time in the stats (leadingAtHTPercentage_away = 0.0), which reduces the likelihood of scenarios starting with '2'.