Herediano vs Sporting San José: match statistics

Sporting San José have been on a clearly more stable run: they have averaged 1.2 points per game over their last five matches, compared with just 0.4 for Herediano, who have suffered three consecutive defeats after two draws. The hosts have scored just 2 goals in four league matches, averaging 0.5 goals per home game and failing to score in 50% of those fixtures. The visitors have been more effective, averaging 1 goal away from home, 5.5 shots on target per match and an 8% conversion rate compared with Herediano’s 4%. Although Herediano enjoy more possession, 62% to 45%, Sporting create an almost comparable quality of chances according to xG, 1.64 versus 1.71, while also allowing opponents a lower xG: 1.06 compared with the hosts’ 1.44. A draw is a realistic possibility, as both teams have drawn half of their matches in their respective conditions, but superior finishing and a more solid defense give the visitors a slight edge.

A strong argument against BTTS - Yes is Herediano’s very poor current attacking form: the team has scored just 1 goal in its last 5 matches, averaging 0.2 per game. The hosts’ BTTS rate during this period is only 20%, while Sporting San José has conceded an average of just 0.8 goals across its last five appearances. Herediano has kept a clean sheet in 50% of its matches this season and concedes an average of 0.5 goals, which could also limit the visitors’ chances despite their xG of 1.64. Sporting does have BTTS in 100% of its matches this season and averages 5.5 shots on target, but its average goals scored is only 1.0. Given the hosts’ poor scoring form, the more likely scenario is that at least one team will fail to score — BTTS - No.

Both teams have recorded at least 2 goals in 100% of their matches so far, but their recent form clearly limits expectations of a high-scoring game. Herediano have averaged just 0.2 goals over their last five matches, while Sporting San José have averaged 1.0, with only 20% of matches for each team going Over 2.5 goals. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their league matches, conceding an average of 0.5 goals, although their xG against stands at 1.08. Total expected goals of 2.10, combined with neither side recording a match above 3.5 goals, provide the strongest support for Under 3.5 goals.

Recent form clearly favors Sporting San José: the visitors have averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match in their last five games, while Herediano have scored just 0.2 and conceded 1.2. At half-time, Herediano were level in 4 of their last 5 matches and scored only 0.2 goals, whereas Sporting avoided losing any of those five first halves and recorded a draw in 60% of them. The likelihood of an even first half is further supported by the low average number of goals before the break—0.6 in the hosts’ matches and 1.0 in the visitors’ matches. After the break, Herediano failed to score in their last five appearances on average, while Sporting conceded only 0.6 goals, increasing the visitors’ chances of turning the draw in their favor. Although Herediano have better season-long home statistics, their current five-match winless run and 60% loss rate make the HT/FT draw/away win—the turnaround scenario—the strongest signal.