HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Québec: match statistics

I back the home win. HFX averages 1.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per home match, while Supra on the road scores 1.75 and concedes 2.25. HFX posts a higher home xG (1.43) than Supra’s away xG (1.20), and xG against Supra is 1.79 versus 1.49 for the hosts, indicating greater defensive vulnerability for the visitors. Over the last five matches both teams scored 9 goals each, but HFX conceded 8 compared to Supra’s 14 conceded, and HFX averaged 1.4 points per match in that period versus Supra’s 0.8. The visitors have an advantage in shots on target (5.25 vs 3.83), however conversion rates are similar (15% vs 16%), so the higher volume of shots does not clearly translate into higher-quality chances. Additionally, the hosts have 0% of home matches without scoring and 17% clean sheets, while Supra has yet to record an away clean sheet (0%), which leads me to give the home side the better chance.

Both teams show a strong BTTS trend: HFX Wanderers 71% of matches with both teams scoring, Supra du Québec 75%, and in the last 5 matches these figures are 80% and 100% respectively. Seasonal goal averages indicate both will have chances — HFX scores 1.14 and concedes 1.71, Supra scores 1.75 and concedes 2.25, so both sides create and allow goals. In the last 5 matches both teams averaged 1.8 goals each, with Supra conceding 2.8 on average in those five fixtures and HFX 1.6, further increasing the likelihood of a Goal/Goal outcome. xG and shot data corroborate this: xG per match HFX 1.63 vs 1.2 Supra, xG against 1.19 vs 1.79, and shots on target 4.14 vs 5.25, showing both teams generate offensive opportunities. Zero clean sheets for both teams (0% clean sheets) and a league average of 2.9 goals per match, with over2.5 rates of 57% and 50%, suggest the most probable scenario is BTTS - Yes.

The model projects approximately 2.91 total goals in the match (expected goals for home 1.71 vs away 1.20), calculated as the average of team offensive xG and opponent defensive vulnerability ((1.63+1.79)/2 and (1.20+1.19)/2). Seasonal data support this projection: HFX has 71% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Supra 75%, and both teams have 100% of matches with at least one goal (over 0.5); the league averages 2.9 goals per match. In the last 5 fixtures both teams scored 9 goals each, with Supra conceding 2.8 goals per game on average and HFX 1.6, indicating greater defensive susceptibility from the visitors. Additionally, BTTS occurs this season in 71% (HFX) and 75% (Supra), while in the last 5 matches BTTS was 80% and 100%, and over 2.5 occurred in 60% (HFX) and 80% (Supra). Therefore, the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is a bet on over 1.5.

The key signal is that HFX have not led at the break this season (0% of matches), whereas Supra were leading at half-time in 50% of their games (2 instances) and average 1.00 first-half goals compared to just 0.14 for HFX. HFX generate higher xG (1.63 vs 1.20), indicating they create better chances, although Supra have superior shot efficiency (conversion 15% vs 7% for HFX). The hosts have scored the majority of their goals after the break (3 goals in 46–60, 2 in 61–75 and 2 in 76–90 — 7 second-half goals in total), and Supra have conceded an average of 1.8 second-half goals in their last 5 matches, which translates into 10 points gained by HFX from goals in the second half versus 2 points for Supra. For these reasons the most likely scenario is Supra leading at half-time with HFX completing a turnaround by full-time (HT=2, FT=1), so the recommended play is 2/1; the probability distribution favors combinations with HT=X and HT=2, with the largest share for 2/1 (26%).