Holywell vs Colwyn Bay: match statistics

Colwyn Bay sit 9th, while Holywell are 16th, and the visitors have won 3 of their 7 league matches compared with the hosts’ zero victories. Recent form also favors the away side: Colwyn Bay have recorded 2 wins in their last 5 matches, whereas Holywell have managed just 1 point during that period and conceded as many as 18 goals. The hosts’ defense looks particularly vulnerable, conceding an average of 3 goals per home game, keeping no clean sheets, and allowing opponents an xG of 1.69. Holywell are nevertheless capable of scoring 1.5 goals per home match, so their chances are boosted by the fact that Colwyn Bay have failed to score in 50% of their away fixtures. Despite the visitors’ poor away record, their higher away xG—1.43 compared with Holywell’s 1.04 at home—and significantly better overall results give them a moderate advantage.

The BTTS - No scenario holds a slight edge, as Holywell have not conceded a single goal in their home matches so far and have kept a 100% clean-sheet record. Colwyn Bay score only 0.75 goals per away game, have failed to find the net in 50% of such matches, and their shot-conversion rate is just 5%, compared with 13% for the hosts. Holywell should create chances, given that Colwyn Bay concede an average of 2.75 goals away from home and have not kept a single clean sheet; however, this does not guarantee a goal for the visitors. The hosts' last five matches were open affairs, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 3.6 conceded, with BTTS landing in 100% of games, but Colwyn Bay recorded BTTS in only 20% of their last five appearances. With the league BTTS average at 48%, the greater risk remains the lower-scoring visitors failing to score.

Holywell average 1.67 goals at home, while Colwyn Bay concede as many as 2.75 goals per away match, clearly strengthening the hosts’ chances of scoring at least twice in the game. Holywell’s last five matches were particularly open: the team scored 1.6 goals but conceded as many as 3.6, with the 2.5-goal line being exceeded in 80% of those fixtures. Colwyn Bay have an average attacking xG of 1.43, while Holywell also create 1.43 xG, meaning the visitors should have scoring opportunities as well. Higher lines are supported by the fact that 75% of Colwyn Bay’s away matches went Over 2.5 goals, although Holywell’s home results—with a full 100% of matches finishing Under 2.5—call for caution. The strongest signal therefore points to Over 1.5 goals, as the combination of the visitors’ weak defense and Holywell’s high recent goal output provides solid grounds for at least two goals.

The strongest signal in favor of Holywell leading at half-time comes from their home record: the hosts led at the break in all three matches, scoring an average of 1.33 goals and conceding none. Colwyn Bay were behind at half-time in three of their four away matches, conceding an average of 1.25 goals before the break while scoring just 0.50. The hosts’ advantage is also clear in the full-time results: Holywell average 3.00 points per home game and have a 100% winning record, while the visitors average 0.25 points away from home and lose 75% of their matches. Colwyn Bay allow opponents to score an average of 2.75 goals away from home, whereas Holywell have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home appearances, strengthening the scenario of maintaining their lead after the break. Holywell’s weaker run in their last five matches, with four defeats, lowers confidence in the pick, but the venue-specific data strongly favor the 1/1 outcome.