Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905: match statistics

Hradec Králové holds a clear advantage in season-long metrics: they have scored 35 goals versus 20 for Bohemians, and at home they average 1.38 goals while conceding only 0.85 per match. Quality of chances is comparable – xG is 1.35 for Hradec at home and 1.49 for Bohemians away – however the hosts are significantly more efficient (home conversion 13% vs 8% for the visitors). Hradec also fields a stronger home defense (54% clean sheets) while Bohemians have just 23% clean sheets on the road and fail to score more often (FTS 38% vs 23%). Recent form over the last five matches further favors the hosts (1.6 points per match vs 1.4 for Bohemians), therefore I project a home win probability of around 62%, draw 22% and away win 16%.

'No' is more likely — Hradec has a season BTTS rate of 31% and 0% in the last 5 matches, while Bohemians are 46% seasonally and 20% in the last 5, favoring signals for No Goal. Both teams score little: Hradec averages 0.62 goals per match, Bohemians 0.92, totaling about 1.54 goals per match, and in the last 5 matches both teams averaged 0.4 and 0.6 goals respectively, further reducing BTTS chances. Although xG indicates chance creation (xG 1.47 for Hradec and 1.49 for Bohemians — ~2.96 combined), the large gap between xG and actual goals (1.47 vs 0.62 and 1.49 vs 0.92) and low shot conversion (5% vs 8%) suggest chances are not being finished. Additionally Hradec have 31% clean sheets, Bohemians 23%, and in the last 5 matches they conceded on average 0.6 and 0.8 goals, so I ultimately assign 30% to BTTS - Yes and 70% to BTTS - No.

I project a total of 2.70 goals: Hradec Králové 1.45 and Bohemians 1905 1.25. The forecast is based on xG comparisons: xG for Hradec 1.47 versus xG against Bohemians 1.64 (average 1.56 for the home side) and xG for Bohemians 1.49 versus xG against Hradec 1.39 (average 1.44 for the away side), adjusted downward due to low finishing rates — shot conversion 5% for Hradec and 8% for Bohemians — and poor goal returns in the last 5 matches: 0.4 (home) and 0.6 (away). With λ≈2.70 the calculated probabilities are: at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) ≈75%, at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) ≈51% and 4+ goals (Over 3.5) ≈29%. Season-long metrics confirm a moderate scoring tendency — Over 1.5 occurred in 46% of Hradec’s matches and 69% of Bohemians’ matches, while Over 2.5 occurred in 31% and 46% of cases respectively, making the 2.5 line riskier. Consequently I recommend playing the over on the 1.5 line as the strongest signal, since the projected 75% provides a clear edge over the under.

I predict a half-time draw and a full-time draw (X/X) with a probability of 22%. Hradec were level at the break in 54% of their matches and kept a clean sheet at half-time in 69% of games, with the hosts’ average first-half goals at 0.62 (they score 0.23, concede 0.38), which favors low-scoring opening 45 minutes. Bohemians have a higher first-half goals average of 0.46, marginally higher xG of 1.49 versus the hosts’ 1.47, and better shot conversion at 8% versus 5%, increasing their chances of scoring in the second half. The second half, however, produces many opportunities — second-half goals average 1.15 between both teams, and at least one goal after the break occurs in 62% of Hradec’s matches and 77% of Bohemians’ matches — which keeps a full-time draw realistic. Therefore X/X is the strongest signal, with X/2 as the secondary option (19%) due to the visitors’ higher xG and conversion rate.