Hull City vs Everton: match statistics

Everton have shown more consistent form, recording 2 wins and 3 draws in their last five matches, while Hull City have won just once and lost twice. The visitors create chances worth an average xG of 1.46 away from home, compared with Hull’s 1.13 at home, and also register more shots on target per match — 5 to 4. However, their edge in chance creation is not reflected in their finishing: they average just 0.5 goals away from home and convert 4% of their shots, while Hull score an average of 1 goal at home. The hosts have kept clean sheets in both of their home matches so far, while Everton have drawn both away fixtures. With so few goals in both teams’ matches, a draw looks slightly more likely than a win for either side.

BTTS - No has a slight edge, as Hull keep a clean sheet in 67% of home matches, while Everton fail to score in 50% of away games. The visitors average just 0.5 goals per away match, with a shot conversion rate of 4%, which weakens their chances of scoring despite an average xG of 1.46. Hull score 1.67 goals per home match and have found the net in every such game so far, so the greater risk to BTTS is Everton failing to score. BTTS landed in 40% of the teams’ last five matches, and in 33% of Hull’s home matches overall, further supporting the No selection. Everton’s away xG of 1.46 and Hull conceding an average of 1.38 xG at home provide some counterbalance, so this is only a narrow edge. BTTS - No means at least one team is expected not to score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw or that neither team will score.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: all of Everton’s matches so far and 67% of Hull’s matches have finished with three goals or fewer. In their last five matches, Hull averaged 0.8 goals and Everton 1.0, tempering expectations despite both teams’ higher average xG figures of 1.25 and 1.74, respectively. Everton conceded just 0.6 goals per match over that period, while Hull have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their matches so far. The combined forecast of 2.35 goals supports the 3.5 line more strongly than the 2.5 line, as it also allows room for a three-goal result.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 3 of their last 5 matches, and neither scored before the break in 4 of those 5. A full-time draw is supported by Everton’s run of 3 draws in their last 5 matches, as well as draws in both of the away fixtures considered. Hull, however, have a case for a home win: they average 1.67 goals and generate an xG of 1.90, while Everton score 0.50 goals away from home and allow opponents an xG of 1.61. The hosts’ advantage is not decisive, as they averaged 1.0 points per game across their last 5 matches, compared with Everton’s 1.8, and Everton lost none of those games. Therefore, a draw at half-time and full-time has the strongest overall case, although a Hull win after a close first half remains a strong alternative.