Hull City vs Norwich City: match statistics

Norwich is the favorite based on form — the visitors have scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches and recorded 3 wins, while Hull have scored only 5 and failed to win any of their last 5; average points over this period are 0.6 for Hull versus 2.0 for Norwich. Defensively Norwich also performs better in practice: the visitors concede 1.18 goals per away match with xG against 1.50, while Hull concede 1.5 goals at home with xG against 1.41, which suggests Norwich actually allows fewer goals than their xG would indicate. Quality of chances also favors Norwich — average on-target shots away is 4.55 versus 3.91 on-target shots for Hull at home, and the visitors’ conversion rate is 14% vs 13% for the hosts; Hull failed to register a shot in 23% of home matches, whereas Norwich had no shots in 14% of away games. Seasonal numbers show Hull have more goals scored 68 vs 62 for Norwich, but also far more goals conceded 65 vs 54 and a zero goal difference at home versus +9 for Norwich away, which weakens the home advantage. Considering the visitors’ superior form, better efficiency and lower share of goalless matches, I forecast a Norwich win.

Both teams give a strong signal for BTTS - season BTTS at 57% for Hull and 64% for Norwich, with both teams at 80% BTTS in their last 5 matches. Hull has scored 68 and conceded 65 goals this season (avg 1.17 scored and 1.22 conceded), while Norwich has 62 scored and 54 conceded (1.59 scored and 1.18 conceded), yielding match averages of 2.39 and 2.77 respectively, conducive to goal exchanges. xG shows Hull generates 1.54 xG against Norwich allowing on average 1.50 xG, and Norwich has 1.33 xG against Hull allowing 1.19 xG — so both sides have xG figures sufficient to score; additionally Norwich converts better (14% vs 9% for Hull). Low clean sheet rates (Hull 17%, Norwich 23%) and a similar number of shots on target (4.48 vs 4.55) increase the chance of goals from both sides. Considering season BTTS 57%/64%, last 5 matches 80%/80%, xG 1.54/1.33 and clean sheet rates 17%/23%, I assess BTTS probability at 78% (No 22%) and therefore pick 'Yes' (BTTS - Yes).

I project 1.35 goals for Hull and 1.55 for Norwich (total 2.90), based on xG and recent form. Hull has xG 1.54 with a season goals-per-game of 1.17 and has been scoring 1.0 goals on average over the last 5 matches, hence the forecast of ~1.35 for the home side. Norwich has a season average of 1.59 goals, xG 1.33, but generated xG 1.8 and scored 1.8 goals on average in their last 5 matches; additionally Norwich’s shot conversion is 14% versus Hull’s 9%, which boosts the visitors’ efficiency. Both teams often produce BTTS situations: Hull 57% and Norwich 64%, and matches involving each side finished over 1.5 goals in 83% and 82% of cases, so Over 1.5 is the strongest signal (estimated 86% chance). I rate Over 2.5 at 58% (seasonal 43%/50%, but 60% Over 2.5 in the last 5 matches for both teams), while Over 3.5 remains unlikely at 18% (seasonal 9%/23%).

In the last 5 matches Hull led at the break in 3 of 5 games (60%), while Norwich led at the break in only 1 of 5 (20%), so the home side are more likely to have the lead after 45 minutes. Nevertheless Norwich have a clear advantage in late stages: the visitors won 3 of the last 5 matches (60%), and Hull did not win any of those five (0%), indicating Norwich are capable of a turnaround. In second halves Norwich average 1.6 goals in the last 5 matches, whereas Hull score only 0.2 goals across those five games and concede on average 1.2 goals after the break, which strongly supports a comeback by the visitors. Seasonally Norwich score 1.59 goals per game versus Hull’s 1.17 and have a higher shot conversion rate 14% vs 9%, despite Hull generating slightly higher xG (1.54 vs 1.33); therefore the most likely HT/FT scenario is 1/2 (Hull leading at half-time, Norwich winning after 90 minutes).