ÍA vs Thór: match statistics

ÍA clearly have the stronger home advantage: they score an average of 1.63 goals per match, while Thór concede as many as 3.00 goals away from home. The hosts also create more chances, recording 1.60 xG and 4.38 shots on target per game, compared with the visitors’ 1.14 xG and 3.25 shots on target. Thór have failed to score in 50% of their away matches and have lost 63% of them; combined with just 13% clean sheets, this points to major problems at both ends of the pitch. ÍA are admittedly in weaker recent form, with 1 win and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, but Thór have conceded 10 goals during that period. The hosts’ superior attacking quality and the visitors’ extremely poor away defensive record point to an ÍA victory.

The BTTS - Yes pick is supported by the very weak defensive records of both teams: ÍA concede an average of 2.00 goals, while Thór concede as many as 3.00 per match. The hosts score an average of 1.33 goals, while the visitors’ defense allows opponents an xG of 2.33, which clearly increases ÍA’s chances of finding the net. Thór score only 0.75 goals per game, but ÍA allow opponents an average of 2.12 xG and have kept a clean sheet in just 22% of matches. In their last five appearances, both teams recorded high goal figures: ÍA averaged 2.4 goals scored and 2.6 conceded, while Thór averaged 1.4 scored and 2.0 conceded. Additionally, BTTS landed in 100% of ÍA’s last five matches and in 60% of Thór’s games, compared with a league average of 72%, making a Goal/Goal outcome more likely.

The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the home side concede an average of 2.00 goals, while Thór concede as many as 3.00 goals per match. In their last five matches, ÍA scored 2.4 goals and conceded 2.6, whereas Thór’s matches produced an average of 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The home side’s xG from their last five matches stands at 1.63, while their opponents allow an average of 1.98 xG, clearly supporting at least two goals in the match. The 2.5 line also has solid support: it was exceeded in 100% of ÍA’s last five matches and in 60% of Thór’s fixtures, with the league average at 3.94 goals. The more cautious Over 1.5 goals nevertheless offers the greatest edge, as both teams have exceeded this line in 67% and 75% of their matches this season, respectively.

The strongest scenario points to ÍA leading at half-time and maintaining that advantage through to the final whistle, as Thór have never been ahead at the break and went into half-time trailing in 75% of their matches. The hosts averaged 0.56 goals before the break, while the visitors conceded as many as 1.38 in this period, and ÍA led at half-time in 33% of their matches. ÍA’s attacking advantage is also evident over the full match: they average 1.33 goals with a 12% shot-conversion rate, compared with 0.75 goals and 7% for Thór. However, both defenses are highly vulnerable, with the hosts conceding an average of 2.00 goals and the visitors 3.00, meaning that the half-time draw followed by an ÍA win in the second half also remains a relevant HT/FT option. The last five matches give the visitors a better points return, 1.6 compared with 0.8, but their average of 0.4 goals scored after the break and the fact that they failed to score in this period in 80% of matches limit their chances of a turnaround.