Ilirija vs Beltinci: match statistics

Beltinci are favorites based on league position and season record: they sit 4th versus Ilirija’s 13th and have 17 wins this season compared to the home side’s 6, with only 6 losses versus Ilirija’s 14. The visitors’ key advantage is defense — Beltinci concede only 0.57 goals on average away and keep clean sheets in 64% of away matches, while Ilirija concedes 1.71 at home and records 21% clean sheets. In attack the visitors are also more efficient: 52 goals this season versus Ilirija’s 37, shot conversion 13% vs 10% and an average of 5.14 shots on target per game compared to 4.5. The last 5 fixtures confirm Beltinci’s form — 3 wins, 9 goals and 1.8 points per game versus Ilirija’s 2 wins, 6 goals and 1.2 points; although Ilirija have a higher home xG (1.7 vs 1.58), their weaker defense and lower efficiency favor the visitors. Probability assessment: 65% Beltinci win, 15% Ilirija win, 20% draw.

Ilirija at home averages 2.0 goals scored and concedes 1.07, while Beltinci away score 1.57 and concede only 0.57. Beltinci keep a clean sheet in 64% of away matches and have BTTS away 29%, whereas Ilirija have BTTS at home 60% — the high 64% clean sheet rate clearly favors a no BTTS scenario. xG shows 1.89 for Ilirija and 1.58 for Beltinci, with xG against 1.09 vs 1.12 being similar, so Ilirija create more chances (14.87 shots vs 11.86) but may not necessarily break down the visitors' defense. This season Ilirija have conceded 49 goals versus 24 conceded by Beltinci, and the league averages 50% BTTS and as many as 56% clean sheets, which further weighs against both teams scoring. On that basis I assign 65% probability to 'no' and 35% to 'yes', because Beltinci's dominant clean sheet metrics (64%) and low 0.57 away goals conceded more strongly reduce BTTS risk than Ilirija's offensive edge.

The projection is based on xG: expected goals total 2.85 (Ilirija 1.51 xG, Beltinci 1.34 xG), calculated as the average of each team’s attack and the opponent’s defense (Ilirija xG for 1.89 vs xG against Beltinci 1.12; Beltinci xG for 1.58 vs xG against Ilirija 1.09). Ilirija scores on average 2.00 goals per game and has Over 1.5 in 87% of matches, while Beltinci have Over 1.5 in 64% of matches; therefore I assess the probability of Over 1.5 at 88%. I price Over 2.5 at 66% taking into account seasonal rates (Ilirija 67% of matches above 2.5, Beltinci 36%) and the league average of 2.83 goals/game. Over 3.5 is less likely (31%) because the expected 2.85 goals is below 3.5, Beltinci exceed 3.5 in only 14% of matches, and they also have 64% of matches with a clean sheet conceded rate, which limits the potential for a very high-scoring game. The strongest signal is therefore Over 1.5 — Ilirija’s high seasonal frequency (87%) and the home side’s xG advantage (1.51) provide a clear edge to the Over on the 1.5 line.

Statistics show Beltinci's advantage in final results: the visitors win 71% of matches and keep a clean sheet in 64% of games, whereas Ilirija wins 47% of fixtures and is trailing at half-time in 40% of cases. A draw at the break is more likely — Beltinci have never been losing at half-time (0%) and in their matches they split half-time outcomes between leading and drawing 50% each, with hosts averaging 0.93 goals by half-time and visitors conceding only 0.07 before the break. In the second half the visitors demonstrate a strong performance: over the last 5 matches they averaged 2.0 goals after the break and won the second half in 60% of cases, which increases their chances of a turnaround or deciding the match in their favor. On this basis the strongest signal is a draw at half-time and a visitors' win at full-time, hence the selection X/2.