IMT Novi Beograd vs Red Star Belgrade: match statistics

Red Star Belgrade sit top of the table with a perfect record of 6 wins, while IMT Novi Beograd have a record of 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats. The visitors have been clearly more effective recently: they have scored 12 goals in 5 matches and won 4 of them, whereas the hosts have managed just 4 goals and recorded 1 win during the same period. Away from home, Red Star create a very high volume of chances, averaging 27 shots and 12 shots on target per match, with an xG of 3.35, compared with IMT’s 19.67 shots and xG of 2.40 at home. However, the hosts remain unbeaten on their own ground, winning 67% of their matches and yet to concede a goal there, which reduces confidence in the pick. Despite this solid defensive record, the visitors’ advantage in form, chance creation and season tally points to a Red Star victory.

The scenario in which one of the teams fails to score is strongly supported by the data, primarily due to Red Star’s defensive strength: the visitors have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their league matches so far and have conceded an average of 0.0 goals. IMT Novi Beograd have recently scored just 0.8 goals per match and found the net only 4 times across their last five fixtures, reducing the hosts’ chances of breaking through such a well-organized defense. Red Star should also create enough opportunities, averaging 3.35 xG and 12 shots on target per match, compared with the 1.12 xG conceded by IMT. The seasonal BTTS rate is just 0% for Red Star and 40% for IMT, exactly matching the league average, so the data does not indicate an increased probability of both teams scoring. Although both sides recorded BTTS in 40% of their last five matches, a result featuring a Red Star goal and at least one team failing to score remains the more likely outcome.

The Over 1.5 goals line is strongly supported by the data: both IMT and Crvena zvezda have cleared it in 100% of their matches to date. The visitors create an exceptionally high number of chances, averaging 3.35 xG, 27 shots and 12 shots on target per game, which should yield approximately 1.75 goals. IMT have conceded just 0.8 goals on average across their last five matches, but Crvena zvezda have scored 12 goals during that period, averaging 2.4 per game. The hosts have been less effective offensively in their current form, scoring 0.8 goals per match, while the visitors have kept a clean sheet in 100% of the matches in this dataset, making Over 2.5 clearly more risky. The projected total of 2.40 goals indicates a strong edge for Over 1.5, while also pointing to a higher probability of no more than three goals being scored.

Red Star are in clearly superior current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while IMT have won just once and lost 2 games. The visitors led at the break in 60% of their last five appearances, whereas the hosts went into half-time trailing in as many as 60% of their matches over the same period. Red Star’s offensive superiority is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 3.35 compared with IMT’s 2.16, while their average number of shots on target is 12.0 versus 8.2. Over their last five matches, the visitors averaged 2.4 goals, compared with just 0.8 for IMT. Combined with Red Star’s average of 1.0 goal before half-time and the hosts’ mere 0.2, this further supports the scenario of the away side taking the lead in the first half. IMT previously recorded very strong home results, but their weaker current form and Red Star’s greater creative potential point towards the 2/2 HT/FT outcome.