Incheon United vs Bucheon 1995: match statistics

Incheon United have the edge in chance creation at home, averaging 11.38 shots, 3.77 shots on target and 1.47 xG, compared with Bucheon’s 9.33 shots and 1.18 xG away from home. However, the hosts have failed to convert this advantage into goals, scoring just 1.08 goals per home match, while winning only once and drawing three times in their last five fixtures. Bucheon have been slightly more effective in terms of points recently, recording 2 wins, 2 draws and just 1 defeat in their last five matches, while conceding only 4 goals during that spell. The visitors fail to score in 42% of their away matches, but their away defensive record is strong, conceding an average of just 1.00 goal, which should limit Incheon’s chances of securing a convincing victory. With both teams recording similar goal-scoring and defensive figures at home and away respectively, a draw appears to be the most likely outcome.

Bucheon 1995’s seasonal BTTS rate is only 33%, clearly below Incheon United’s 50% and the league average of 52%. The visitors failed to score in 42% of matches, while the hosts kept a clean sheet in 36%, creating a realistic scenario in which Bucheon do not find the net. Both teams also have moderate attacking output: Incheon score an average of 1.14 goals, while Bucheon average 1.00, with just 4.0 and 3.0 shots on target per match, respectively. Incheon’s last five matches produced BTTS in 80% of cases, but Bucheon conceded only 0.8 goals per game during this period and allowed opponents an xG of 1.75, so the balance of evidence remains in favor of BTTS - No. This means that at least one team is expected not to score; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

The profile of both teams points to a match with limited goal-scoring potential: Incheon average 1.14 goals, while Bucheon average 1.00 goal per game. The 3.5-goal line was not exceeded in 71% of the hosts’ matches and as many as 83% of the visitors’ games, while Over 3.5 goals occurred in only 29% and 17% of cases, respectively. Bucheon keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches, compared with 36% for Incheon, further increasing the likelihood of a result featuring a maximum of three goals. In the last five rounds, both teams scored 7 goals, but Bucheon conceded only 4, supporting a projection of around 2.25 total goals. The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals, as even with an improvement in attacking output in the latest run of fixtures, the season data clearly limits the risk of four goals being scored.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Bucheon victory at full-time, as Incheon were level at the break in 64% of their matches, compared with 58% for Bucheon. Both teams rarely take the lead before half-time: the hosts did so in just 14% of matches and the visitors in 17%, averaging only 0.86 and 0.83 first-half goals, respectively. After the break, Bucheon have the more favourable record: they score an average of 0.67 goals and concede 0.50, while Incheon score 0.71 but allow opponents 0.79 goals on average. The visitors also have a higher average points tally across the season, 1.33 compared with 1.07, and in their last five matches they have conceded only 0.8 goals per game while scoring 1.4, increasing their chances of deciding an evenly balanced match after half-time.