Incheon United vs Jeonbuk Motors: match statistics

I predict an away win (2): Jeonbuk sits 2nd in the table versus Incheon in 7th and concedes on average 0.56 goals away per match, while Incheon concedes 1.22 goals at home. The visitors create clearly more chances – average xG 1.76 vs 1.45, more shots (14.56 vs 11.22) and more shots on target (5.33 vs 3.78), translating into a greater number of scoring opportunities. Although Incheon has a higher shot conversion (10% vs 7%) and scores on average 1.11 goals at home versus Jeonbuk’s 1.00 away, the visitors keep clean sheets more often (44% vs 22%) and have a much lower away loss rate (11% vs 67% home losses for the hosts). In the last 5 matches Jeonbuk averaged 1.6 pts per game (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), while Incheon averaged 1.2 pts (2 wins, 3 losses), therefore I assess Jeonbuk’s win probability at 45%, draw 35% and home win 20%.

Seasonal data are mixed: Incheon scores 2.0 goals per match on average with a season BTTS of 63%, while Jeonbuk records 1.0 goals per match and BTTS 44%, with the league average BTTS at 48%. Chance metrics are similar (xG 1.72 for Incheon vs 1.76 for Jeonbuk) and shots on target 4.75 vs 5.33, but Incheon is far more efficient in conversion (14% vs 7%), which increases their likelihood of scoring. The strongest signal against BTTS is the home side's recent form: Incheon has BTTS 0% in the last 5 matches and concedes on average 0.6 goals per match, while Jeonbuk has BTTS 60% in their last 5 and concedes 0.8, meaning the hosts have recently suppressed occurrences of Goal/Goal. Additionally, the league rate of clean sheets is 63%, and Jeonbuk’s season average goals conceded is very low (0.56 per match), which raises the probability of at least one clean sheet. Taking into account Incheon’s 0% BTTS in the last 5 and Jeonbuk’s low average concessions (0.56), the more likely scenario is No Goal — I estimate 60% for BTTS - No and 40% for BTTS - Yes.

I expect Incheon to score about 1.48 goals and Jeonbuk about 1.46, totaling 2.94 goals. Incheon averages 2.0 goals at home and records over 1.5 goals in 88% of matches, with an xG of 1.72 versus Jeonbuk’s xG_against of 1.36, which strongly supports Over 1.5 (I rated 86%). The 2.5 line is moderately favored for the over (65%), since Incheon has 75% of matches >2.5 despite Jeonbuk having only 11% — additionally Jeonbuk’s last 5 matches show xG_for 2.08 and 40% over25 in the last 5, which raises the chance of more goals. The signal for 3.5 is weaker: Incheon has 38% of matches >3.5, Jeonbuk 11%, so I rate Over 3.5 only 28% (Under 72%). The best pick is Over 1.5, because the expected 2.94 goals and Incheon’s high share of matches above 1.5 (88%) provide the strongest and most reliable signal.

Incheon has a 63% home win rate and scores an average of 2.0 goals per match versus 1.0 for Jeonbuk, indicating a home advantage in the final result. At half-time Incheon averages 0.88 goals and leads at the break in 38% of home games, and 88% of its home matches have at least 0.5 goals in the first half; Jeonbuk averages 0.44 goals at the break and is level after 45 minutes in 56% of away matches with an average of 0.0 goals conceded by half-time, suggesting an even first half with a slight home initiative. The teams’ xG are very similar (1.72 vs 1.76), but Incheon’s conversion rate is 14% versus Jeonbuk’s 7%, so comparable chances should favor the home side for goals. After the break Incheon scores an average of 1.13 goals and wins second halves in 50% of matches, while Jeonbuk wins them in only 22%, therefore the most likely scenario is a home lead at the break and a home win at full-time (1/1), although the X/1 variant and a draw at both moments (X/X) also have noticeable probability.