Indy Eleven vs Charleston Battery: match statistics

Indy Eleven are the clear favorites: at home they win 83% of matches, score an average of 2.0 goals and concede 0.83 per game, with a home goal difference of +7. Charleston Battery, despite sitting 2nd in the table with 30 goals this season, have only a 29% win rate and 57% loss rate on the road; away they score 1.29 and concede 1.86 on average, and fail to score in 57% of away fixtures. Indy creates more high-quality chances: on average 15.33 shots and 6 on target at home versus 9.86 shots and 4 on target for Charleston away, and the home xG for Indy is 1.79 compared to the visitors’ 1.32 xG on the road. Conversion rates are similar (around 13% for both), but the home side’s superiority in attack and markedly better home defense (0.83 conceded vs 1.86) together with 0% home matches without scoring versus 57% of away matches without goals for Charleston favor Indy Eleven. On that basis I tip a home win; estimated probabilities: Indy Eleven ~65%, draw 18%, Charleston 17%.

I assign 65% to BTTS ('Yes') and 35% to 'No' because Indy Eleven averages 3.0 goals per match this season while Charleston concedes 1.86 on average — a strong signal that the home side is likely to score. Indy has an xG of 1.90 per game versus Charleston’s defense allowing 1.45 xG; the hosts average 7.14 shots on target versus the visitors' 4.0, with conversion rates of 20% vs 13% — these numbers increase the probability of goals from both sides. Charleston’s profile is mixed: season-long away BTTS is only 29%, but in the last 5 matches they scored 16 goals (3.2 per game) and had an 80% BTTS rate, whereas Indy in that period conceded only 0.4 goals and had a 20% BTTS — hence conflicting signals. Additionally, Indy matches finish BTTS in 71% of cases compared to a league average of 56%, and their home Over 2.5 is 71%, so combining season indicators and the visitors’ offensive form leans the selection toward 'Yes'.

xG calculation suggests a total goals value around 2.90: home offensive xG 1.90 against Charleston’s defense 1.45 gives roughly 1.68 for Indy, while Charleston’s attack 1.32 versus the hosts’ defense 1.13 yields about 1.22 for the visitors. Indy Eleven averages 15.14 shots per game with 7.14 on target and a conversion rate of 20%, whereas Charleston has 9.86 shots, 4.0 on target and a 13% conversion, which supports a higher likelihood of goals. Season stats show Indy with 100% of matches over 1.5 goals and 71% over 2.5, and Charleston at 71% and 57% respectively, so both seasonal baseline and xG favor the over. In the last 5 matches Charleston averages 3.2 goals and Indy 1.2, further increasing the chance of more goals from the visitors. Therefore the strongest and safest signal is Over 1.5 (I estimate a 94% probability), with moderate support for Over 2.5 (~70%) and slight support for Over 3.5 (~55%).

Indy Eleven hold a clear advantage: they average 3.0 goals at home versus Charleston’s 1.29, have an xG of 1.90 vs 1.32 and register 15.14 shots per match compared to the visitors’ 9.86, which translates into an 86% home win rate versus Charleston’s 29% win rate. The hosts led at the break in 5 matches (71%) and average 1.57 goals by half-time versus 0.57 for their opponents; Indy Eleven have scored 14 goals by half-time compared to Charleston’s 8, so HT as a lead for the home side is a strong signal. Additionally, the hosts average 7.14 shots on target and a 20% conversion rate, which increases the probability that a lead at the break will be maintained and converted into a win — hence my pick of 1/1 (Half-Time/Full-Time: home/home). A draw at half-time or a turnaround (scenarios X/1, X/X, 2/1) is possible, but I assess their combined probability at around 30% given the xG gap and half-time goals. A Charleston win after the break is unlikely, considering their 29% win rate and an average xG of 1.29.