Inter Milan vs Monza: match statistics

Inter Milan are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 3 wins and 2 draws, while Monza have suffered one defeat over the same period. The hosts have scored 7 goals and conceded just 4 during this run, giving them a positive goal difference and an average of 0.8 goals conceded per match. Monza have been slightly more effective in attack, scoring 9 goals in five matches, but they have also conceded 5. Inter have averaged 2.2 points per game over their last five league fixtures, compared with Monza’s 2.0, while the hosts’ higher position in the table—9th compared with 13th—provides an additional argument. Given the visitors’ comparable attacking form, a draw remains a realistic outcome, but Inter’s more solid defense and home advantage favor a home win.

The signal for both teams to score is moderately positive: Inter recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Monza did so in 40%, giving an average of 60% for both teams. During this period, the hosts scored 7 goals, averaging 1.4 per match, while Monza scored 9, averaging 1.8 per game. Their attacking potential is supported by an xG of 1.66 for Inter and 1.43 for Monza, while both defenses allowed opponents an xG above 1.20. Inter conceded just 0.8 goals per match, but Monza scored 1.8, making an away goal more likely than a clean sheet for the hosts. Therefore, BTTS - Yes is the more probable outcome, while BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score—not necessarily a 0:0 draw or a match in which neither team scores.

The available data from the last 5 matches indicate that the home side averaged 1.4 goals scored and the visitors 1.8, providing a solid basis for at least two goals. Both teams also posted high chance-creation figures: the home side’s xG was 1.66, while the visitors’ stood at 1.43. The defenses were not completely watertight, with the home side conceding an average of 0.8 goals and the visitors 1.0, alongside xG against figures of 1.36 and 1.21, respectively. In the visitors’ matches, 3 of their last 5 games exceeded 2.5 goals, while both teams scored in 4 of the home side’s 5 matches. The strongest selection remains Over 1.5, as the projected 2.65 goals provides a clearer margin of safety than the more evenly balanced 2.5 line.

The strongest signal is a cautious start to the match: Inter were level at half-time in 80% of their last five matches, compared with 60% for Monza, with an average of just 0.6 goals scored before the break across both teams’ matches. Each side averaged only 0.4 goals scored and 0.2 conceded in the first halves during this period, clearly increasing the likelihood of an X at half-time. After the break, Inter averaged 1.0 goals scored and remained unbeaten throughout their last five matches, recording three wins and two draws, as well as an average of 2.2 points per match. Monza are dangerous after the interval, averaging 1.4 goals scored and winning 60% of second halves, so scenarios involving a late Monza victory still retain a significant share. However, home advantage and Inter’s consistency point towards a turnaround in favor of the hosts.