Internacional vs Mirassol: match statistics

I predict a home win (1): Internacional has a clear advantage in defense and form. At home they generate on average 1.65 xG and 4.5 shots on target per match, and score 0.67 goals per match over the season; in the last 5 fixtures they scored 6 goals and conceded only 2, which translates to an average of 2.2 points per match in that period. Mirassol away records higher possession (61% vs 54%) and xG 1.48 with an average of 1.0 goal per match, but concedes 1.75 goals per away match and has let in 8 goals in the last 5 games. The visitors have not won on the road (0% wins) and suffer 75% defeats away, while Internacional keeps a clean sheet in 33% of home matches and faces lower expected threat from the opponent (avg xG against 0.95 vs 1.43). Considering the superior defense, higher offensive xG for the hosts and the significant form gap (avg 2.2 pts vs 0.6 pts in the last 5), I assess probabilities at 65% for Inter, 20% for a draw and 15% for Mirassol.

The 'Both Teams To Score' scenario is more likely: Internacional's seasonal BTTS is 67%, Mirassol's 50%, and BTTS occurs in 56% of league matches. Both sides concede goals this season — Internacional averages 1.5 goals conceded per match, Mirassol 1.75, with 10 goals conceded by home teams and 16 by away teams — which favors both sides getting on the scoresheet. Internacional generates higher xG (1.89 vs 1.48) and has more shots on target (6.33 vs 3.5), so I expect Mirassol to concede; conversely Mirassol still scores on average 1.0 goals this season and has a higher conversion rate (8% vs 7%), giving them a real chance to score. In the last 5 matches Internacional scored 6 and conceded 2 (avg 1.2 and 0.4), while Mirassol scored 4 and conceded 8 (avg 0.8 and 1.6), so despite the hosts' better form the visitors still concede frequently, which supports the BTTS scenario. Additionally both teams have 0% clean sheets this season; considering the above figures I assign 68% to BTTS - Yes and 32% to No Goal.

xG and form analysis indicates 1.66 expected goals for Internacional and 1.47 for Mirassol (total 3.13), above the league average of 2.6 goals per match. Internacional produces 1.89 xG, averages 6.33 shots on target and 17.5 total shots, while Mirassol has 1.48 xG, 3.5 shots on target and 13.25 shots overall, and the visitors concede 1.75 goals per game on average. In the last 5 home matches Internacional scored 6 and conceded 2 (1.2/0.4), while Mirassol in five games scored 4 and conceded 8 (0.8/1.6); seasonally Over 2.5 occurred in 67% of the home team’s matches and 50% of the visitors’. Based on the distribution for a total of 3.13 the probability of Over 1.5 is approximately 82%, Over 2.5 about 60%, and Over 3.5 about 38%. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation), although the 2.5 line also has moderate support given the xG gap 1.89 vs 1.48 and the home advantage in shots on target 6.33 vs 3.5.

At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw: Internacional were level at the break in 67% of their matches, while Mirassol led at half-time in 0% and trailed at half-time in 100%. The home side average 0.67 goals by the break, the visitors only 0.25, with Mirassol conceding on average 1.5 goals by half-time, which highlights the visitors’ weakness in the first period. In the second half Internacional hold the advantage — their xG is 1.89 versus Mirassol’s 1.48, they average 6.33 shots on target to 3.5, and in the last five matches they won 60% of second halves and collected an average of 2.0 points in second halves, while the visitors had only 20% second-half wins. For these reasons the most probable and strongest data signal is a half-time draw with an Internacional turnaround to win after 90 minutes (X/1).