Ipswich Town vs Sunderland: match statistics

Sunderland are showing clearly stronger current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and averaged 1.4 goals per game, while Ipswich recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. The visitors are also significantly more solid defensively, conceding just 2 goals during this period compared with 4 for the hosts. Ipswich scored more goals across their last five matches, 9 compared with 7, but the two draws highlight their lower ability to close out matches with a win. Sunderland averaged 2.4 points per game over their last five league fixtures, compared with 1.6 for Ipswich, so the current trend points towards an away victory. Ipswich’s 12th-place position compared with Sunderland’s 19th does not offset the visitors’ advantage in directly comparable, recent form.

The stronger signal points toward BTTS - No, as both teams scored in only 20% of Sunderland’s last 5 matches and 40% of Ipswich’s. Sunderland conceded just 2 goals during this period, averaging 0.4 per match, while Ipswich conceded 4, averaging 0.8. The visitors also have a low xG against them of 0.89, suggesting that opponents find it difficult to create high-quality chances against them. Ipswich averaged 1.8 goals scored, but its xG stands at 1.57, so Sunderland’s solid defensive setup could limit the hosts to zero. The most likely scenario is that at least one team fails to score.

The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals, as Sunderland have conceded only 2 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.4 per game. Ipswich have scored 1.8 goals per match over the same period, but their average xG was 1.57, which, against the opponent’s very tight defense, limits the hosts’ projection to around 1.18 goals. Sunderland averaged 1.4 goals scored and generated 1.29 xG, while Ipswich conceded just 0.8 goals per match, so the visitors should also struggle to surpass one goal. The combined average goals total from the last five matches was 2.6 for Ipswich and just 1.8 for Sunderland, while Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% and 20% of those matches, respectively. The lack of complete season data calls for additional caution, but the projected total of 2.20 goals clearly supports a scenario with no more than three goals.

Ipswich has a clearer first-half profile: across their last five matches, they averaged 1.0 goals scored before the break and conceded just 0.2, while Sunderland managed only 0.33 goals and conceded 0.67 during the same period. The hosts led at half-time in 40% of those matches, whereas Sunderland were trailing at the break in as many as 67%, which most strongly supports the scenario of an Ipswich advantage after 45 minutes. Ipswich kept a clean sheet before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, and both teams failed to score before the break in all of them. However, Sunderland have won four of their last five matches and conceded an average of only 0.4 goals per game, so HT/FT scenarios involving a turnaround or a draw after the hosts take the lead remain relevant; nevertheless, the best single selection is for Ipswich to maintain their early advantage through to full-time.