Jagiellonia II vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki: match statistics

Jagiellonia II are unbeaten at home, winning 50% of their matches, drawing 50%, and conceding just 0.5 goals per game on average. The hosts score 2 goals per home match, with an xG of 1.54, while Lechia allow opponents an average of 1.94 xG away from home and concede as many as 2 goals per game. The visitors are in better overall form, having won three consecutive matches and scored 14 goals in their last five games, but they have lost 2 of their 3 away matches and have kept no clean sheets. Lechia attempt more shots away from home—14.33 compared with Jagiellonia’s 11.5—but the hosts are more clinical in front of goal, with a conversion rate of 17% versus 12%. Jagiellonia’s defensive advantage and Lechia’s clear struggles away from home point towards a home win, although the visitors’ attacking threat gives them a genuine chance of scoring.

The signal for both teams to score is very strong, as in the current season both Jagiellonia II and Lechia T. Mazowiecki have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches, and neither team has kept a clean sheet. The hosts score an average of 4.5 goals but concede 2.5, while the visitors score 1.67 goals and allow their opponents 2.0 goals per match. The data from the last five appearances also supports this scenario: Lechia has recorded BTTS in 100% of its matches, scoring 2.8 goals and conceding 2.2, while Jagiellonia both scores and concedes 1.8 goals per game. The attacking potential is confirmed by xG figures of 2.36 for the hosts and 1.65 for the visitors, alongside high xG against values of 1.99 and 1.94 respectively. Even in a league with an average BTTS rate of 64%, the profiles of both teams clearly point more frequently towards both sides finding the net.

The match profile clearly favors goals: both teams have gone over 1.5 goals in 100% of their matches so far this season, and neither side has kept a clean sheet. Jagiellonia II create chances worth an average of 2.36 xG at home, while Lechia allow opponents 1.94 xG per match. The visitors are equally active offensively, having scored an average of 2.8 goals in their last five appearances, with 100% of those matches finishing with at least three goals. The overall league average is 3.38 goals, while the last five matches involving both teams have produced averages of 3.6 and 5.0 goals per game, respectively. Over 1.5 goals is the strongest pick, as the combination of high-quality chances, poor off-the-ball defending, and both sides’ consistent scoring significantly reduces the likelihood of a scenario with no more than one goal.

Jagiellonia II have won all of their home matches so far, scoring an average of 4.5 goals, while Lechia have lost 67% of their away fixtures and concede an average of 2.0 goals. The hosts were leading at the break in 2 of 2 home matches, scoring an average of 3.0 goals before half-time and conceding none, whereas the visitors went into half-time trailing in as many as 2 of their 3 away games. Jagiellonia’s advantage is also evident in chance creation: their average xG stands at 2.36 compared with the opponents’ 1.65, while they average 12.0 shots on target against Lechia’s 4.33. The visitors’ recent form is better, with three consecutive wins, but their 2.2 goals conceded per match across their last five appearances, along with 1.6 goals conceded after the break, support the hosts’ chances of holding onto their lead. The most likely outcome therefore remains an HT/FT scenario in which Jagiellonia II take the lead in the first half and see out the win.