Jaguares de Córdoba vs Deportivo Pasto: match statistics

I predict an away win ('2'). Deportivo Pasto has 9 wins and 22 goals scored this season versus Jaguares' 4 wins and 14 goals, with Pasto conceding 17 and Jaguares 28. In the last 5 matches Pasto have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, averaging 2.0 points per game, while Jaguares have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, averaging 0.8 points per game, indicating a clear advantage for the visitors in form. Pasto generates more high-quality chances: on the road they average 4.43 shots on target and 13.0 attempts per match with xG 1.35, compared to the hosts' 3.5 shots on target, 11.13 attempts and xG 1.08. Although Jaguares defend more solidly at home (conceding 1.13 goals per game and 38% clean sheets), Pasto's superiority in results, xG and recent points per match favors the away side, hence a probability split of 55/25/20.

Both teams have similar xG: Jaguares 1.31 vs Pasto 1.35, indicating both sides generate roughly 1.3 goalscoring opportunities per match. The league and away statistics favor BTTS — league BTTS rate is 56%, and Deportivo Pasto’s seasonal BTTS is 57% with an average of 4.43 shots on target vs Jaguares’ 3.33. Hosts have a high seasonal clean sheet rate of 56% and a low home goals conceded average of 0.67, but in the last 5 matches Jaguares conceded 7 goals (1.4 per match) and has an xG against of 1.6. Pasto scored 6 goals in their last 5 matches (1.2 per match) and conceded 0.6 on average, which offsets the home defense and increases the likelihood of Goal/Goal. Based on this I tip BTTS - Yes with a probability of 60% vs 40% for No Goal.

xG and average analysis forecasts 1.40 goals for Jaguares (home xG 1.31 and xG against opponents 1.26) and 1.11 for Deportivo Pasto (away xG 1.35 and xG against hosts 1.13), totalling 2.51 goals. Seasonal metrics indicate a high probability of at least 2 goals: seasonOver15Percentage_home 67% and seasonOver15Percentage_away 71%, while Over0.5 stands at 89% and 86%. The 2.5 line is less certain because hosts have only 33% of matches over 2.5 goals, versus 71% for the visitors, so I estimate Over 2.5 at about 54% (Under 46%). In the last 5 matches Jaguares scored 4 and conceded 7 (averages 0.8 and 1.4), while Pasto scored 6 and conceded 3 (1.2 and 0.6), which further supports a higher goal count. For these reasons I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (estimated 82% for Over 1.5).

Jaguares led at the break in 4 of 9 home matches (44%), drew at half-time in 5 (56%) and were never losing at half-time (0%), with an average goals at half-time of 0.78 versus Deportivo Pasto’s 0.43. Season averages indicate a home advantage: Jaguares score 1.44 and concede 0.67 goals per match, while Pasto have 1.29 scored and 1.57 conceded, with similar xG of 1.31 vs 1.35. Home side accumulated 17 points at half-time (HTPPG 1.89) versus the visitors’ 8 points (HTPPG 1.14) and kept a clean sheet at half-time in 78% of matches, which increases the likelihood of maintaining a lead. Despite Pasto’s better recent form over the last five (60% wins vs Jaguares’ 20%), the goal differential and superior home defense suggest converting a half-time lead into a full-time victory, hence the selection of the 1/1 scenario as the strongest signal.