Jarun vs Dubrava Zagreb: match statistics

I back the home win (1): Jarun has strong arguments at their stadium, averaging 1.43 goals per home match with a shot conversion rate of 15% and winning 43% of home fixtures. Dubrava struggles away — scoring only 0.71 goals on the road, winning just 14% of away matches and failing to score in 50% of away games. Jarun concedes 0.93 goals at home on average, while Dubrava concedes 1.36 away; both teams have similar xG (1.25 for Jarun vs 1.24 for Dubrava), which suggests the superior efficiency of the home side should decide the outcome. In the last 5 matches Jarun scored 5 goals and averaged 1.2 points per game, whereas Dubrava scored 8 but conceded 10 and averaged 1.0 point per game, indicating greater defensive instability from the visitors. Considering the lower share of matches without scoring for the hosts (21% vs 50%), better chance conversion (15% vs 9%) and home advantage, I assign Jarun approximately a 64% chance to win, 20% for a draw and 16% for an away win.

In my assessment BTTS - Yes is more likely. Jarun has BTTS in 56% of matches this season, while Dubrava has recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 games. xG and shot stats support this: Jarun’s attacking xG is 1.39 with an average of 3.63 shots on target, Dubrava has xG 1.24 and 3.5 shots on target, and both teams have conceded opponent xG averages of 1.83 (Jarun) and 1.68 (Dubrava) over their last 5 matches. Counterarguments are Dubrava’s seasonal scoring issues — only 0.71 goals per game and no goals in 50% of season matches — and Jarun’s recent scoring of just 1.0 goal per game over the last 5. Seasonally Jarun scores 1.38 and concedes 1.5 goals per game, and the home side has over 2.5 goals in 63% of appearances, which further supports both teams scoring. Considering the strong signal from Dubrava’s last 5 matches, Jarun’s seasonal 56% BTTS and similar xG around 1.3–1.4, I estimate BTTS probability at 62% versus 38% for No Goal and recommend a 'yes' bet.

The xG-based model projects 1.39 xG for Jarun versus an average 1.37 xG conceded by Dubrava, yielding approximately 1.38 expected goals for the home side; conversely Dubrava has 1.24 xG against an average 1.42 conceded by Jarun, i.e. about 1.33 expected goals for the away side — total ~2.71 goals. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.71 gives probability of over 1.5 goals ≈75% (1 - P(≤1) ≈0.753), over 2.5 ≈51% and over 3.5 ≈29%. Match data confirm this: Jarun at home records 75% of games with over 1.5 goals and 63% with over 2.5 goals, while Dubrava away has 57% over 1.5 and only 29% over 2.5 — hence a strong signal for the 1.5 line, with the 2.5 line remaining marginal. Additionally, Jarun averages 10.19 shots and 3.63 on target with a 13% conversion rate, versus 8.0 shots, 3.5 on target and a 9% conversion for Dubrava, suggesting superior attacking quality from the hosts. Recommendation: play Over 1.5 (strongest signal) with expected goals 1.38 and 1.33; Over 2.5 is only slightly favorable (≈51%), and Over 3.5 at ≈29% is not worth the risk.

Jarun has a clear seasonal advantage: they average 1.38 goals per match versus Dubrava’s 0.71 and win 50% of home games compared to the visitors’ mere 14% away wins, which favors a home victory on the final result. Nevertheless, Jarun is often in an unfavorable position at halftime — they were trailing at the break in 8 of 16 home matches (50%), while Dubrava led at halftime in only 1 of 14 away games (7%) and were level at the break as many as 8 times (57%), so the most likely halftime state is a draw or a minimal lead for the visitors. The second halves are decisive: Jarun records an average of 1.5 goals in second halves at home and 0.88 goals scored after the break (AVG_2hg_home=1.5, scored_2hg_avg_home=0.88), which translates into 1.56 average points in second halves (ppg_2hg_home=1.56) and a strong ability to produce a turnaround. Additionally, the hosts average 10.19 shots per match with a 13% conversion rate versus 8.0 and 9% for Dubrava, which reinforces the scenario of a draw at half-time and a Jarun victory at full-time (X/1).